Coronavirus

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BJ
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by BJ »

Northern Raider wrote:Brisbane declared a Covid hotspot. As yet still only 1 case.
On that statistical basis my teenage years in the 80s could be declared a hotspot too.
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »



I assume you weren’t as infectious though!
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

-TW- wrote: January 8, 2021, 11:58 am Like I said a few weeks ago, I have no idea why there wasn't a drop dead date for coming home.

You have to have an exceptional reason to leave, why can't that be applied to returning citizens. Not like they've had 11 months warning or anything.

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Citizens have been trying to return for months but if you have a cancellation on you flight OR quarantine hotel booking, your whole package gets reverted to the back of the line. Should the below family be seperated because they ‘weren’t fast enough’?? I would have zero issue with trying to get this family on a plane, into quarantine and back with their father. It’s been 11 months of trying. Today’s ‘tightening’ of restrictions from ScoMo should lessen the chances of infections arriving in the country.

I get your point, but it is a very complex issue.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc ... e/12946316
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Azza
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

Coastalraider wrote: January 8, 2021, 1:13 pm
-TW- wrote: January 8, 2021, 11:58 am Like I said a few weeks ago, I have no idea why there wasn't a drop dead date for coming home.

You have to have an exceptional reason to leave, why can't that be applied to returning citizens. Not like they've had 11 months warning or anything.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
Citizens have been trying to return for months but if you have a cancellation on you flight OR quarantine hotel booking, your whole package gets reverted to the back of the line. Should the below family be seperated because they ‘weren’t fast enough’?? I would have zero issue with trying to get this family on a plane, into quarantine and back with their father. It’s been 11 months of trying. Today’s ‘tightening’ of restrictions from ScoMo should lessen the chances of infections arriving in the country.

I get your point, but it is a very complex issue.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc ... e/12946316
I accept that but we cannot continue to put 20 million people at risk for the sake of 40000 who still have to come home. serious decisions need to be made about moving quarantine back to Christmas island or Howard Springs only and capping the number of international arrivals so that capacity of those locations is able to cope.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

I reckon the quarantine system is working reasonably well and is progressively improving. I'm not sure it's right to slam the borders shut when we have reasonable procedures in place to test and contain the virus - seems a bit draconian.

It will be months and months and maybe years before this thing gets under control around the world (if ever). There is no way we can simply close ourselves off from the rest of the world for some indefinite period until 8 billion people are vaccinated.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

ACT declares Brisbane a virus hotspot, enforces quarantine: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14225

Masks mandatory for airline passengers, pre-flight testing adopted: https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... 19d2e49876
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Looks like everyone has hit the shops ahead of the three day lockdown in Brisbane many without masks.

Kinda defeating the purpose folks...
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

gangrenous wrote: January 8, 2021, 4:48 pm Looks like everyone has hit the shops ahead of the three day lockdown in Brisbane many without masks.

Kinda defeating the purpose folks...

Only the ones that haven’t sprinted to the GC or the NSW border. I’d say Brisbane’s population will be a little smaller tomorrow: https://www.couriermail.com.au/coronavi ... 0b75cd3d25
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

People can be downright idiots.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

What did they think would happen?

I don't quite understand what they are hoping to achieve here with a 72 hour lockdown.

I could understand if there were a number of cases to contact trace. A short lockdown would give contact tracers time to get on top of it.

I would understand if it was for two weeks. That would be one cycle and would go a long way to snuffing out community transmission.

As it is, it seems to have only served to induce panic. The shops were full with no masks and no social distancing. There was an exodus from Brisbane to the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. Here on the Gold Coast it's life as usual - packed bars and restaurants, limited social distancing.

Edit some reports there are about 80 close contacts. I'll guess we will wait and see how many test positive.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 7:37 pm What did they think would happen?

I don't quite understand what they are hoping to achieve here with a 72 hour lockdown.

I could understand if there were a number of cases to contact trace. A short lockdown would give contact tracers time to get on top of it.

I would understand if it was for two weeks. That would be one cycle and would go a long way to snuffing out community transmission.

As it is, it seems to have only served to induce panic. The shops were full with no masks and no social distancing. There was an exodus from Brisbane to the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. Here on the Gold Coast it's life as usual - packed bars and restaurants, limited social distancing.

Edit some reports there are about 80 close contacts. I'll guess we will wait and see how many test positive.
Don’t want to be too negative but it screams of panic - a 3 day lockdown With a notice period allowing mass exodus serves no logical purpose, Except to buy time for the government to get their crap together and try and figure out what to do.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Bay53 »

My thoughts are with our Brisbane based fans. We love coming up to SE Qld and doing GH live, we probably get more interaction there than anywhere.

Stay safe and hopefully this will get sorted quickly.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »


Coastalraider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 7:37 pm What did they think would happen?

I don't quite understand what they are hoping to achieve here with a 72 hour lockdown.

I could understand if there were a number of cases to contact trace. A short lockdown would give contact tracers time to get on top of it.

I would understand if it was for two weeks. That would be one cycle and would go a long way to snuffing out community transmission.

As it is, it seems to have only served to induce panic. The shops were full with no masks and no social distancing. There was an exodus from Brisbane to the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. Here on the Gold Coast it's life as usual - packed bars and restaurants, limited social distancing.

Edit some reports there are about 80 close contacts. I'll guess we will wait and see how many test positive.
Don’t want to be too negative but it screams of panic - a 3 day lockdown With a notice period allowing mass exodus serves no logical purpose, Except to buy time for the government to get their crap together and try and figure out what to do.
It comes across that way
But they have a very good public health infrastructure here that should be able to chase hard.

I don't think that you take too many chances with this strain. I'm not sure that what NSW is doing would work with a more infectious strain.

Maybe they are just waiting to see what all of the tests from close contacts come back as. Surety that will be available by tomorrow.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

From what I gather it's just to get an idea of how quickly/if at all it will spread seeing it's this mutant strain

So it's about a week since they "became infectious" so next 3 days will show if it has spread

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Yeah just reading the PM's presser from yesterday. Because it's 70% more transmissable they want to give contact tracers a "chance to get ahead".

I guess that means a longer lock down if contacts come back positive.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

How a single case of COVID-19 sparked a 'quick and early' lockdown and countrywide anxiety

Associate Professor Selvey said the fact the Brisbane case was confirmed as the more contagious strain of the virus changed everything. She said although the Brisbane lockdown was announced after just one person was infected with the more contagious variant, the person had more than 70 close contacts over a number of days.

"This lockdown provides some breathing space and an opportunity to learn whether there are other cases and what's actually going on."

Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-09/ ... n/13042612
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

I’m flying to Brisbane today and then hiring a car to head to straight to the Gold Coast and skip the city altogether (usually I’d take the airport train to the coast through the city)

On the coast for two nights before heading home, hopefully nothing changes in regards to restrictions during that time
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 9:08 pm
Coastalraider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 7:37 pm What did they think would happen?

I don't quite understand what they are hoping to achieve here with a 72 hour lockdown.

I could understand if there were a number of cases to contact trace. A short lockdown would give contact tracers time to get on top of it.

I would understand if it was for two weeks. That would be one cycle and would go a long way to snuffing out community transmission.

As it is, it seems to have only served to induce panic. The shops were full with no masks and no social distancing. There was an exodus from Brisbane to the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. Here on the Gold Coast it's life as usual - packed bars and restaurants, limited social distancing.

Edit some reports there are about 80 close contacts. I'll guess we will wait and see how many test positive.
Don’t want to be too negative but it screams of panic - a 3 day lockdown With a notice period allowing mass exodus serves no logical purpose, Except to buy time for the government to get their crap together and try and figure out what to do.
It comes across that way
But they have a very good public health infrastructure here that should be able to chase hard.

I don't think that you take too many chances with this strain. I'm not sure that what NSW is doing would work with a more infectious strain.

Maybe they are just waiting to see what all of the tests from close contacts come back as. Surety that will be available by tomorrow.
Keep in mind this is a Premier that shut down Brisbane one day because there was rain forecast.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Northern Raider wrote: January 9, 2021, 9:28 am
Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 9:08 pm
Coastalraider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 7:37 pm What did they think would happen?

I don't quite understand what they are hoping to achieve here with a 72 hour lockdown.

I could understand if there were a number of cases to contact trace. A short lockdown would give contact tracers time to get on top of it.

I would understand if it was for two weeks. That would be one cycle and would go a long way to snuffing out community transmission.

As it is, it seems to have only served to induce panic. The shops were full with no masks and no social distancing. There was an exodus from Brisbane to the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. Here on the Gold Coast it's life as usual - packed bars and restaurants, limited social distancing.

Edit some reports there are about 80 close contacts. I'll guess we will wait and see how many test positive.
Don’t want to be too negative but it screams of panic - a 3 day lockdown With a notice period allowing mass exodus serves no logical purpose, Except to buy time for the government to get their crap together and try and figure out what to do.
It comes across that way
But they have a very good public health infrastructure here that should be able to chase hard.

I don't think that you take too many chances with this strain. I'm not sure that what NSW is doing would work with a more infectious strain.

Maybe they are just waiting to see what all of the tests from close contacts come back as. Surety that will be available by tomorrow.
Keep in mind this is a Premier that shut down Brisbane one day because there was rain forecast.
Wait, what? When did this happen? How did I miss this?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Since the second wave in Victoria, it has been obvious that quarantining overseas returnees was the single biggest risk to Australia’s Covid safe living. Apart from Melbourne, there have been leaks in Auckland, Adelaide, several in Sydney, and several near misses in Perth. And now the cat may be out of the bag with a breach in Brisbane, sending that city into a 3 day lockdown.

The National Cabinet met yesterday and have implemented some changes to international quarantine in attempt to minimise risk of breaches. Changes include pre-flight testing of returnees, a requirement to wear masks on international and domestic flights as well as at airports, and daily testing of quarantine workers.

The number of international arrivals has been halved in NSW (to a maximum 1505 per week), Queensland (maximum 500 per week) and WA (maximum of 515 per week) until February 15. Unfortunately this means that many people trying to get home for months will have their tickets cancelled, with those with the cheapest seats most likely to be effected. Its estimated that flights will cost between $13,000 to $21,000 per seat from the UK.

We have had months to sort this out. Months. Things were never going to get better in the short term, not with the increasing prevalence of the virus overseas. We were always going to see more and more infected returnees, and subsequently more and more quarantine leaks. If anything was worth throwing money at, this was it. We have been let down by a lack of Federal leadership to develop a uniform and solid approach to quarantine nationally.

The “UK strain” has made it’s way into the community in Brisbane. This mutation is known as the N501Y strain. From the time of its initial detection, it rapidly became the dominant circulating strain in the south of England. This mutation effects the coronavirus spike protein, which in a laboratory appears to make it adhere tighter to ACE receptors (the cell receptor that the virus uses to enter the host cell), giving it a theoretical advantage. Other proposed advantages that this mutation has is a higher viral load in the upper airways which makes the host more infectious, and a shorter incubation period (3 days). I have not seen confirmation of those theories. The strain is not though to cause more severe disease. The alteration to the spike protein is at this point not thought to alter the effectiveness of vaccines currently being distributed.

One study estimates that the N501Y strain is 56% more transmissible than previous strains. The R0 of an infectious organism indicates on average how many people an infected person will in turn infect. The R0 can be altered in a community by social distancing. To control an outbreak, the goal is to get the community R0 below 1. To get the community R0 below 1 for this strain, restrictions will need to come down harder, faster and wider. It is believed that the tracking, tracing and isolating measures currently employed in NSW would not suffice for this strain. As such, there is concern nationally that sustained community transmission of this virus, and an inability to contain it. For this reason we have seen a lockdown in Brisbane for three days, while public health waits to see if any of the Patient Zero contacts test positive. Thankfully there have been no new cases in Queensland overnight. I expect that lockdown will be extended if any new cases arise.

Victoria have now had 3 days of zero new cases since a man who had attended the Boxing Day test tested positive. Melbourne’s cluster was looking contained to a spreading event at a Thai Restaurant. While that event is genomically linked to the NSW outbreak, the index case or chain of transmission bringing the virus from NSW to the restaurant has still not been identified. The MCG case is a concern, as while he is genomically linked to the NSW outbreak, he has no clear chain of transmission to either NSW, or the Thai restaurant. The testing numbers are great in Victoria, and the case numbers are low. There are some unknowns, however its looking positive that this cluster has been quashed.

NSW’s outbreak is smoldering on, but seems to be being choked. There was one new case today, linked to the Berala cluster. There were 32 cases in the last 7 days, compared to 72 in the prior 7 days. Unlinked cases are marginally lower with 2 in the last 7 days compared to 7 in the 7 days prior. Seven day testing average is up to 26,500 from 24,500 the week before. The Northern Beaches come out of lockdown this weekend. A side by side comparison of the current outbreak, and the July/August outbreak originating at the Crossroads cluster reassuringly suggests that this outbreak is being quashed more rapidly. Of course it only takes one super spreader event to put paid to those plans.

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Last edited by Dr Zaius on January 9, 2021, 11:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Dr Zaius wrote: January 9, 2021, 10:13 am
Northern Raider wrote: January 9, 2021, 9:28 am
Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 9:08 pm
Coastalraider wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote: January 8, 2021, 7:37 pm What did they think would happen?

I don't quite understand what they are hoping to achieve here with a 72 hour lockdown.

I could understand if there were a number of cases to contact trace. A short lockdown would give contact tracers time to get on top of it.

I would understand if it was for two weeks. That would be one cycle and would go a long way to snuffing out community transmission.

As it is, it seems to have only served to induce panic. The shops were full with no masks and no social distancing. There was an exodus from Brisbane to the Sunshine and Gold Coasts. Here on the Gold Coast it's life as usual - packed bars and restaurants, limited social distancing.

Edit some reports there are about 80 close contacts. I'll guess we will wait and see how many test positive.
Don’t want to be too negative but it screams of panic - a 3 day lockdown With a notice period allowing mass exodus serves no logical purpose, Except to buy time for the government to get their crap together and try and figure out what to do.
It comes across that way
But they have a very good public health infrastructure here that should be able to chase hard.

I don't think that you take too many chances with this strain. I'm not sure that what NSW is doing would work with a more infectious strain.

Maybe they are just waiting to see what all of the tests from close contacts come back as. Surety that will be available by tomorrow.
Keep in mind this is a Premier that shut down Brisbane one day because there was rain forecast.
Wait, what? When did this happen? How did I miss this?
March 2017. Ex-cyclone Debbie was moving through.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Dr Zaius wrote: January 9, 2021, 10:15 am Since the second wave in Victoria, it has been obvious that quarantining overseas returnees was the single biggest risk to Australia’s Covid safe living. Apart from Melbourne, there have been leaks in Auckland, Adelaide, several in Sydney, and several near misses in Perth. And now the cat may be out of the bag with a breach in Brisbane, sending that city into a 3 day lockdown.

The National Cabinet met yesterday and have implemented some changes to international quarantine in attempt to minimise risk of breaches. Changes include pre-flight testing of returnees, a requirement to wear masks on international and domestic flights as well as at airports, and daily testing of quarantine workers.

The number of international arrivals has been halved in NSW (to a maximum 1505 per week), Queensland (maximum 500 per week) and WA (maximum of 515 per week) until February 15. Unfortunately this means that many people trying to get home for months will have their tickets cancelled, with those with the cheapest seats most likely to be effected. Its estimated that flights will cost between $13,000 to $21,000 per seat from the UK.

We have had months to sort this out. Months. Things were never going to get better in the short term, not with the increasing prevalence of the virus overseas. We were always going to see more and more infected returnees, and subsequently more and more quarantine leaks. If anything was worth throwing money at, this was it. We have been let down by a lack of Federal leadership to develop a uniform and solid approach to quarantine nationally.

The “UK strain” has made it’s way into the community in Brisbane. This mutation is known as the N501Y strain. From the time of its initial detection, it rapidly became the dominant circulating strain in the south of England. This mutation effects the coronavirus spike protein, which in a laboratory appears to make it adhere tighter to ACE receptors (the cell receptor that the virus uses to enter the host cell), giving it a theoretical advantage. Other proposed advantages that this mutation has is a higher viral load in the upper airways which makes the host more infectious, and a shorter incubation period (3 days). I have not seen confirmation of those theories. The strain is not though to cause more severe disease. The alteration to the spike protein is at this point not thought to alter the effectiveness of vaccines currently being distributed.

One study estimates that the N501Y strain is 56% more transmissible than previous strains. The R0 of an infectious organism indicates on average how many people an infected person will in turn infect. The R0 can be altered in a community by social distancing. To control an outbreak, the goal is to get the community R0 below 1. To get the community R0 below 1 for this strain, restrictions will need to come down harder, faster and wider. It is believed that the tracking, tracing and isolating measures currently employed in NSW would not suffice for this strain. As such, there is concern nationally that sustained community transmission of this virus, and an inability to contain it. For this reason we have seen a lockdown in Brisbane for three days, while public health waits to see if any of the Patient Zero contacts test positive. Thankfully there have been no new cases in Queensland overnight. I expect that lockdown will be extended if any new cases arise.

Victoria have now had 3 days of zero new cases since a man who had attended the Boxing Day test tested positive. Melbourne’s cluster was looking contained to a spreading event at a Thai Restaurant. While that event is genomically linked to the NSW outbreak, the index case or chain of transmission bringing the virus from NSW to the restaurant has still not been identified. The MCG case is a concern, as while he is genomically linked to the NSW outbreak, he has no clear chain of transmission to either NSW, or the Thai restaurant. The testing numbers are great in Victoria, and the case numbers are low. There are some unknowns, however its looking positive that this cluster has been quashed.

NSW’s outbreak is smoldering on, but seems to be being choked. There was one new case today, linked to the Berala cluster. There were 32 cases in the last 7 days, compared to 72 in the prior 7 days. Unlinked cases are marginally lower with 2 in the last 7 days compared to 7 in the 7 days prior. Seven day testing average is up to 26,500 from 24,500 the week before. The Northern Beaches come out of lockdown this weekend. A side by side comparison of the current outbreak, and the July/August outbreak originating at the Crossroads cluster reassuringly suggests that this outbreak is being quashed more rapidly. Of course it only takes one super spreader event to put paid to those plans.

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Thanks Doc. Makes sense.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

Thanks Dr Z. That was a really good summary of the situation.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

I feel like I’ve got the COVIDs today after drinking with Dr Zaius yesterday
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

The Nickman wrote: January 10, 2021, 9:55 am I feel like I’ve got the COVIDs today after drinking with Dr Zaius yesterday
Better check for 5G implants too.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

Brisbane Lockdown ends tonight... no community transmission at all.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Coastalraider wrote: January 11, 2021, 9:38 am Brisbane Lockdown ends tonight... no community transmission at all.
...and introduced some confusing mask wearing rules for the next 10 days.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

Ah well, WA were still right to do as they did and close their border for at least another month, even though there has been no community transmission detected, and the outbreaks in Vic and NSW are under control and in single digit case numbers.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

Azza wrote: January 11, 2021, 11:22 am Ah well, WA were still right to do as they did and close their border for at least another month, even though there has been no community transmission detected, and the outbreaks in Vic and NSW are under control and in single digit case numbers.
It's all in line with their secession plan.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Qld relaxed their lockdown, no longer a hotspot in ACT

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Northern Raider »

-TW- wrote: January 11, 2021, 2:01 pm Qld relaxed their lockdown, no longer a hotspot in ACT

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
Is one case the new benchmark for a declared hotspot?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Azza »

Northern Raider wrote: January 11, 2021, 2:22 pm
-TW- wrote: January 11, 2021, 2:01 pm Qld relaxed their lockdown, no longer a hotspot in ACT

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
Is one case the new benchmark for a declared hotspot?
According to Western Australia, it's when a mouse farts in the woods in the relevant state.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

Northern Raider wrote:
-TW- wrote: January 11, 2021, 2:01 pm Qld relaxed their lockdown, no longer a hotspot in ACT

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
Is one case the new benchmark for a declared hotspot?
It's supposed to be 3 cases average over 3 days.

I think everyone wet the bed cause it was the UK strain.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Coastalraider »

With tongue firmly in cheek, Id like to congratulate the Greater Brisbane area for successfully containing zero community cases of Covid on Thursday, to zero community cases of covid on Monday.

Thanks for taking one for the team.
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greeneyed
Don Furner
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Joined: January 7, 2005, 4:21 pm

Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

Understandably, there was strong concern given it was a case that involved the potential spread of the UK strain to 170 odd contacts. The Commonwealth Government made it clear the lock down of Brisbane, and the treatment of Brisbane as a hot spot, was supported federally. Made complete sense. Luckily, we might just get out of this one pretty much unscathed.
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