Coronavirus

[Northern Raider]

I'd normally be on board with that... but in this case, I suspect that certain State Premiers were the difference between Australia having a good outcome and a disastrous one in Australia.

Interesting concept. Wondering which ones saved us all.

I don't know about "saving us all", but I suspect NSW and Victoria pushed us harder and faster into restrictions than we would have seen otherwise.

Given that decisions on most restrictions came under the jurisdiction of the states then they had to be the ones that put them in place. Federal government didn't have the authority. Whatever the decisions the simple fact it needed 7 different govenement bodies to implemement their own set of rules demonstrates that the system is fundamentally flawed.

P.S. the "save us all" line was my owne little hyperbole to double down on your "disastrous" outcome.

I'd normally agree on that too... but the fact is that the situation is not the same across the country. Every time I turn on the morning news shows, they're asking... "Why are the rules different depending on which State you're in? Everyone's confused, it's all terrible." But they're different because the number of cases and the risks are different by location. They're even different within each State/Territory. We'd have unnecessary restrictions in place longer in some parts of Australia, with significant economic costs, if there weren't differences.

There is little justification for differences in many regulations, perhaps the vast bulk of them, but in this case, I think it is quite sensible.

Location of the borders is the issue there. Different rules for Tweed Heads as there is in Coolongatta despite them being the same physical location. On the flip side you have the same rules for Bondi as you do for Armidale.

[greeneyed]

Interesting concept. Wondering which ones saved us all.

I don't know about "saving us all", but I suspect NSW and Victoria pushed us harder and faster into restrictions than we would have seen otherwise.

Given that decisions on most restrictions came under the jurisdiction of the states then they had to be the ones that put them in place. Federal government didn't have the authority. Whatever the decisions the simple fact it needed 7 different govenement bodies to implemement their own set of rules demonstrates that the system is fundamentally flawed.

P.S. the "save us all" line was my owne little hyperbole to double down on your "disastrous" outcome.

I'd normally agree on that too... but the fact is that the situation is not the same across the country. Every time I turn on the morning news shows, they're asking... "Why are the rules different depending on which State you're in? Everyone's confused, it's all terrible." But they're different because the number of cases and the risks are different by location. They're even different within each State/Territory. We'd have unnecessary restrictions in place longer in some parts of Australia, with significant economic costs, if there weren't differences.

There is little justification for differences in many regulations, perhaps the vast bulk of them, but in this case, I think it is quite sensible.

Location of the borders is the issue there. Different rules for Tweed Heads as there is in Coolongatta despite them being the same physical location. On the flip side you have the same rules for Bondi as you do for Armidale.

I agree entirely. But the geographic spread of public goods varies, and you have to draw the border somewhere in a federation. There is actually a good economic reason to have some public goods provided at a sub national level... because they are more local in character. The issue is that the current allocation of responsibilities between the Commonwealth and States were not really based on that, and don’t reflect a modern world.

[Seiffert82]

Yeah, the state borders are pretty arbitrary when it comes to dealing with this sort of thing, but managing the pandemic within defined boundaries (as arbitrary as they are) definitely helps. The situation in the NT unfolded very differently to that in Victoria. To that extent, it makes no sense to keep the NT locked down.

[Dr Zaius]

Haha, don't get me started on the obsolescence State Government. Their big ticket items are Education, Health and Emergency Services. Having all those managed on a national level could provide significant benefits. Other state responsibilities could be distributed between federal and local governments

I'd normally be on board with that... but in this case, I suspect that certain State Premiers were the difference between Australia having a good outcome and a disastrous one in Australia.

Interesting concept. Wondering which ones saved us all.

I don't know about "saving us all", but I suspect NSW and Victoria pushed us harder and faster into restrictions than we would have seen otherwise.

Externally that's how it looked,but I'm not 100% convinced. They certainly applied pressure, but I think that the Feds had a step wise planned approach to restrictions, with triggers for next stages, and it progressed quickly as the situation escalated rapidly.

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[Dr Zaius]

This is a standard day for me at the moment
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1555110237

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[gangrenous]

Haha, don't get me started on the obsolescence State Government. Their big ticket items are Education, Health and Emergency Services. Having all those managed on a national level could provide significant benefits. Other state responsibilities could be distributed between federal and local governments

I'd normally be on board with that... but in this case, I suspect that certain State Premiers were the difference between Australia having a good outcome and a disastrous one in Australia.

Interesting concept. Wondering which ones saved us all.

I don't know about "saving us all", but I suspect NSW and Victoria pushed us harder and faster into restrictions than we would have seen otherwise.

Externally that's how it looked,but I'm not 100% convinced. They certainly applied pressure, but I think that the Feds had a step wise planned approach to restrictions, with triggers for next stages, and it progressed quickly as the situation escalated rapidly.

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I don’t think I buy that. We’re seeing the same thing but the opposite on the way out. Very glad that NSW and Victoria have pushed harder on the health front.

[Northern Raider]

This is a standard day for me at the moment
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1555110237

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Sorry Doc but that is totally unbelievable. No way you do any more than a 5 hour day.

I'm on board with the zombie virus idea. Give me a bit of notice though. I'd like to stock up on baseball bats and 6" nails first.

[Dr Zaius]

I'd normally be on board with that... but in this case, I suspect that certain State Premiers were the difference between Australia having a good outcome and a disastrous one in Australia.

Interesting concept. Wondering which ones saved us all.

I don't know about "saving us all", but I suspect NSW and Victoria pushed us harder and faster into restrictions than we would have seen otherwise.

Externally that's how it looked,but I'm not 100% convinced. They certainly applied pressure, but I think that the Feds had a step wise planned approach to restrictions, with triggers for next stages, and it progressed quickly as the situation escalated rapidly.

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I don’t think I buy that. We’re seeing the same thing but the opposite on the way out. Very glad that NSW and Victoria have pushed harder on the health front.

Maybe, who knows. It will make for interesting reading one day.

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[bonehead]

This is a standard day for me at the moment
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1555110237

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Sorry Doc but that is totally unbelievable. No way you do any more than a 5 hour day.

I'm on board with the zombie virus idea. Give me a bit of notice though. I'd like to stock up on baseball bats and 6" nails first.

Bog roll and spaghetti sauce

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[Manbush]

This is a standard day for me at the moment
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1555110237

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I saw that earlier and thought about sharing

[Northern Raider]

This is a standard day for me at the moment
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1555110237

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Sorry Doc but that is totally unbelievable. No way you do any more than a 5 hour day.

I'm on board with the zombie virus idea. Give me a bit of notice though. I'd like to stock up on baseball bats and 6" nails first.

Bog roll and spaghetti sauce

Don't be ridiculous. Thats how you combat coronavirus. Would have no effect on zombie viruses.

[RedRaider]

This is a standard day for me at the moment
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1555110237

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Hi Dr Z - what on earth is a Tdap booster?? Is that Doctor speak for the application of a rubber mallet??

[Dr Zaius]

This is a standard day for me at the moment
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1555110237

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Hi Dr Z - what on earth is a Tdap booster?? Is that Doctor speak for the application of a rubber mallet??

Tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis booster

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[Botman]

Welp... that'll be the last time i ever get a **** "tdap booster", "Doctor"
If that is your real title.

Filthy **** colaborator.

[Dr Zaius]

Welp... that'll be the last time i ever get a **** "tdap booster", "Doctor"
If that is your real title.

Filthy **** colaborator.

Please. Don't pretend you're not getting a taste of that sweet, sweet Big Pharma money.

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[Botman]

Welp... that'll be the last time i ever get a **** "tdap booster", "Doctor"
If that is your real title.

Filthy **** colaborator.

Please. Don't pretend you're not getting a taste of that sweet, sweet Big Pharma money.

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Zaius, dont humiliate me in front of the money

[gerg]

Clearly somebody has broken through Nickman's highway blockade. A case at a Rockhampton nursing home.

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[-TW-]

Are we sure it's not the man himself?

All of the spruiking about the virus might have taken a toll

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[Northern Raider]

Clearly somebody has broken through Nickman's highway blockade. A case at a Rockhampton nursing home.

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The blockade will now serve to keep them all in.

[Dr Zaius]

It does go to show how difficult this thing is to snuff out completely though.

Rocky hasn't had a case since early on in the outbreak. They are almost certainly going to get a cluster here, experience in Sydney and overseas is that it spreads rapidly through aged care facility.

Hopefully none of the staff have it and have been wandering around the community.

This really highlights people, it you are at all unwell, even just minor symptoms, go and get tested. If someone that you know or encounter is unwell, tell them to go and get tested. Most places have a result within 24 hours now.

Hopefully this person had the app. She's been symptomatic for 12 days, God knows where she has been.

[Northern Raider]

It does go to show how difficult this thing is to snuff out completely though.

Rocky hasn't had a case since early on in the outbreak. They are almost certainly going to get a cluster here, experience in Sydney and overseas is that it spreads rapidly through aged care facility.

Hopefully none of the staff have it and have been wandering around the community.

This really highlights people, it you are at all unwell, even just minor symptoms, go and get tested. If someone that you know or encounter is unwell, tell them to go and get tested. Most places have a result within 24 hours now.

Hopefully this person had the app. She's been symptomatic for 12 days, God knows where she has been.

Unfortunately too many people are stubborn and belligerent by nature to take that advice. If they're told to get tested that won't simply because they don't like being told what to do.

[Dr Zaius]

It does go to show how difficult this thing is to snuff out completely though.

Rocky hasn't had a case since early on in the outbreak. They are almost certainly going to get a cluster here, experience in Sydney and overseas is that it spreads rapidly through aged care facility.

Hopefully none of the staff have it and have been wandering around the community.

This really highlights people, it you are at all unwell, even just minor symptoms, go and get tested. If someone that you know or encounter is unwell, tell them to go and get tested. Most places have a result within 24 hours now.

Hopefully this person had the app. She's been symptomatic for 12 days, God knows where she has been.

Unfortunately too many people are stubborn and belligerent by nature to take that advice. If they're told to get tested that won't simply because they don't like being told what to do.

True that.

I was listening to a Freakanomics podcast. Steve Levitt argued that there needs to be a financial incentive both to be tested, and to stay home if positive.

He suggested a weekly lottery for all of those that were tested that week, as an incentive to testing. The payout he was suggested was some huge amount, I think $500mil per week, but he argued that the economy is losing 10s of billions, and the economic payoff of widespread testing and ability to reopen the economy out weighed the cost.

He suggested paying people $2k a week to stay at home until cleared once they test positive.

It sounds preposterous when you first hear it, but the more you think about it, the more it makes sense. You could always link the amount of a lottery payout to the number of tests performed for the week.

For example, yesterday 40,000 tests were performed Australia wide, so about 280,000 per week. Just say we payout $2 per test (given the test probably costs at least $100, its not a huge addition). Lottery pays out $560,000 this week. I'd go get swabbed if it meant I had a chance of winning $560k, hell I'd get a swab a week!

[gangrenous]

Yeah and then we have people at low risk deliberately contracting the virus to earn 2k a week watching Netflix.

The lottery would have to be once per a given period of months, otherwise you are blowing 102 bucks a pop on tests with very low probability. But I guess in the states where it’s out of control there’s probably enough loitering unknown in the community that it’s worth it currently.

[Dr Zaius]

Yeah and then we have people at low risk deliberately contracting the virus to earn 2k a week watching Netflix.

The lottery would have to be once per a given period of months, otherwise you are blowing 102 bucks a pop on tests with very low probability. But I guess in the states where it’s out of control there’s probably enough loitering unknown in the community that it’s worth it currently.

You might get a few getting it deliberately I guess. That would be hard to do, cause it's not exactly everywhere. And they would certainly be in the small minority - no sound minded person wants this virus.

The lottery would have to be reasonably frequent, otherwise people might only get tested every few months. That's not often enough. Maybe 2-3 weekly.

It needs some tweaking, but some sort of financial incentive to get tested has merit I think.

[gangrenous]

Yeah I didn’t word that well on the lottery. It can be held more frequently, but you don’t want to be testing the same people every 2 weeks who have no symptoms. So the block is on how often a person enters. Otherwise you’ll create more problems in inefficient testing and false positives I would have thought.

I’d say the first strategy of paying people to stay home works better for Australia’s present situation. The virus is currently rare so you won’t have too many wombats giving it to themselves. Things are opening up so 2k to be at home is becoming less attractive.

The lottery works better for the USA’s situation with loads of community transmission and a high hit rate for broad testing of lottery participants.

I suppose you could consider a once off blitz for Australia. Try to test as many people at once. But I don’t think we have the capacity to do enough to make that effective and you’d only do it to try and go for elimination.

[Dr Zaius]

Hmm. Well hopefully they are thinking outside the box for strategies. There needs to be some sort of plan to get ol' "She'll be right mate, I'll solider on its just a case of the sniffles" to present for testing

[greeneyed]

On my daily walk, I never cease to be amazed at how people lack self awareness. Everyone is being told to social distance, keep 1.5 metres away from each other, right? Across from my place, there’s a small bridge over the creek which runs through the park. It’s narrow, you’d brush up against another person crossing in the opposite direction, or close to. I always let people cross by themselves if they’re coming in the opposite direction. Today two people are just standing on the bridge, watching their kids play on the banks of the creek. I stop to wait until they move on. They gesture to me to walk past them on the bridge. I say, “people can’t really cross if you’re standing on the bridge”. They move off it, just, while giving me a filthy look.

Earlier this week, I veered off the path in the park, onto the grass, to let an older woman, walking in the opposite direction in the middle of the path to pass. She yells at me... “I don’t have the plague you know!” She was actually cranky with me for giving her more space.

There are regularly people who are walking in groups, three or four across, taking up the entire width of some very wide pathways down on the lake. Is it so hard to keep left?

I know the risks are low, given contact is limited... but here’s a question for Dr Zaius... am I being too careful?

[Dr Zaius]

It's hard isn't it. There isn't a lot about and people are going to become quite complacent, particularly in places like the ACT that have effectively reached elimination, at least for now.

It's obviously an individual decision as to how cautious you are. I'd say that we should all still be following social distancing guidelines - that is when we stop and chat, or sit down for some food or a drink that we should try to stay 1.5m apart. There is so much we don't about this virus but I would think that the odds of contracting from someone by walking past them, unless they are actively coughing or sneezing, must be incredibly low. That said I think it's the polite thing to do to give people space and so I do, but don't hesitate to keep going if there isn't much space.

[greeneyed]

Thanks Doc. I think I'll keep trying to be polite and give people space.

[gerg]

It's been pretty noticeable with people I know reasonably well that this situation has affected some people more than others. A few people I work with are clearly going through a really tough time and are clearly suffering from depression.

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[Seiffert82]

It's always disappointing to hear how some people respond in circumstances like this. Even if you think you're not infected, or you're not worried about the risk of getting infected, nobody has the right to project their personal decisions onto others or judge them for their concern.

Even little old ladies who don't think they have the virus or aren't concerned for their own safety.

[-TW-]

It's been pretty noticeable with people I know reasonably well that this situation has affected some people more than others. A few people I work with are clearly going through a really tough time and are clearly suffering from depression.

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Pretty much everyone I'm close to has been mentally affected by it

Being socially isolated for an extended period has been incredibly hard

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[bonehead]

It's been pretty noticeable with people I know reasonably well that this situation has affected some people more than others. A few people I work with are clearly going through a really tough time and are clearly suffering from depression.

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Pretty much everyone I'm close to has been mentally affected by it

Being socially isolated for an extended period has been incredibly hard

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because of ISO with you?

I jest, cmere you

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[gangrenous]

Earlier this week, I veered off the path in the park, onto the grass, to let an older woman, walking in the opposite direction in the middle of the path to pass. She yells at me... “I don’t have the plague you know!” She was actually cranky with me for giving her more space.

Why did you leave off the end of the story where you clapped back “yeah but your breath smells like cat food ya old bag!”?

[Northern Raider]

Earlier this week, I veered off the path in the park, onto the grass, to let an older woman, walking in the opposite direction in the middle of the path to pass. She yells at me... “I don’t have the plague you know!” She was actually cranky with me for giving her more space.

Why did you leave off the end of the story where you clapped back “yeah but your breath smells like cat food ya old bag!”?

Because GE was out walking his cats.