Coronavirus

[greeneyed]

ACT records 30 new COVID-19 cases: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14264

Some bad news there.

Australian Defence Force to be deployed at ACT borders as COVID cases spike: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14264

Some suggestion that what's happening is being driven by people entering the ACT when they shouldn't.

[Coastalraider]

ACT records 30 new COVID-19 cases: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14264

Some bad news there.

Australian Defence Force to be deployed at ACT borders as COVID cases spike: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14264

Some suggestion that what's happening is being driven by people entering the ACT when they shouldn't.

Not making excuses, but it must be hard to live in say, Sutton, were everything you get would come from canberra, and Audrey have to be driving to Goulburn to go shopping. It’s like qld/nsw, nsw/vic border towns. They are a fairly unique case. Our company has a business in the Albury wodonga area, some people can’t go to work, school, doctors, etc due to border restrictions and it’s just plain odd that areas that at every other time essentially operate one town are split.

[greeneyed]

ACT records 30 new COVID-19 cases: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14264

Some bad news there.

Australian Defence Force to be deployed at ACT borders as COVID cases spike: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/ ... /?cs=14264

Some suggestion that what's happening is being driven by people entering the ACT when they shouldn't.

Not making excuses, but it must be hard to live in say, Sutton, were everything you get would come from canberra, and Audrey have to be driving to Goulburn to go shopping. It’s like qld/nsw, nsw/vic border towns. They are a fairly unique case. Our company has a business in the Albury wodonga area, some people can’t go to work, school, doctors, etc due to border restrictions and it’s just plain odd that areas that at every other time essentially operate one town are split.

But there are reports of vehicles from Sydney being turned around. The ACT was keen on establishing a regional bubble, for border residents. This sets out what border residents can do: https://www.covid19.act.gov.au/travel/n ... -residents

So if you live in Sutton, you can shop in the ACT. The ACT has always been keen to look after the border residents. The NSW government no doubt had its own other problems and priorities and protecting the regions wasn’t one of them. The NSW Premier and government sure have a lot to answer for.

Interestingly, the NSW Premier recently told the ACT Chief Minister that NSW did not expect the ACT to look after its COVID patients in the region. Health officials in NSW quickly retracted… and the ACT is going ahead and will do what it’s always done and look after the border residents.

[-TW-]

The issue is Canberra Hospital is a major referral hospital for almost half the state

There's always a Toll chopper coming in from Bega or Wagga or Cooma

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[cat]

Wow the Barr is doing a great job at fobbing off his screw ups onto NSW.

The simple facts are delta spreads very quickly and easily.

You guys were so so quick to say the citizens of Sydney were complacent. Well by the the looks of the number of people infectious in the community and the high number of mystery cases in Canberra and add to that the low testing numbers ( even Barr keeps telling you they need to be higher) as well as the number of people walking around without masks on ( we see footage here of Canberra like you judged footage from Sydney) the ACT has a very big problem with complacency.

Maybe Barr needs to start helping your businesses, and getting everyone doing the right thing instead of blaming elsewhere.

What about the people from the ACT who quickly left and spread it all around the south coast? The people who contracted the virus in Canberra and spread it to Goulburn?

Maybe you shouldn't have been living in fantasy land with full basement nightclubs, proper check in systems etc and higher screen testing and you wouldn't be in the mess you are.

Watching the case numbers and projectory of both ACT and Vic I would say NSW has done a much better job with delta and with a vaccination rate of above 85% double dose Christmas and 2022 are looking great.

Watching Barr every day in his press conference he looks completely lost and is deflecting blame because he knows he screwed up

[-TW-]

Thanks for joining us Gladys

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[T_R]

Thanks for joining us Gladys

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[papabear]

I think Cat has a point, she was just obviously irked by GE biased bullcrap.

Honestly, on anything related to NSW GE just posts absolute rubbish. He is obviously a smart man, but for whatever reason he does not like NSW and that comes through in every single post about NSW.

When you are a resident and someone who makes up part of NSW it would be natural to react to some of that garbage taking it personally.

[papabear]

But to bring this thread into a more positive note.

NSW - Leading vaccination rates in Australia by both quantum and per capita.
NSW - Far and away leading returning overseas people back to Australia by quantum and per capita.
NSW - More Covid cases then anywhere in aus by quantum and per capita
NSW - More tests then everywhere by quantum and by capita (maybe ACT does us by capita not sure).
NSW - the only state that doesnt close our borders (who knew state borders were even a thing before covid started)to everyone making everyones life more difficult at the drop of a hat.
NSW - will shortly be having international travel without quarantines so local citizens can again go around the world for business or pleasure.

Is the government doing a perfect job - no, is it doing a good job, I think most people would be pretty happy with it. I would be surprised to See Gladys removed at the next election no matter who she exercises with.

Also keep in mind - this is a canberra raiders football club talk site with fans from predominately from the ACT and then some from NSW / QLD, which state is talked about the most...

[irvste]

Act and NSW both doing great on Vax rates and hopefully other states catch up soon its all that really matters now pot shots are meaningless compared to vaxs shots

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[-TW-]

First Moderna doses arriving tonight, the shortage is finally over

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[cat]

Act and NSW both doing great on Vax rates and hopefully other states catch up soon its all that really matters now pot shots are meaningless compared to vaxs shots

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I'm struggling to understand why Victoria isn't doing better in relation to vaccination rates, and they have had plenty of vax to pump into arms. They got extra pfizer earlier and all the AZ they want.
Considering the state they are with their cases and hospitalisations I just don't get it. Is it a rebellion against dictator dan? Poor information? Poorly run vaccination centres? I'm not sure

Queensland also needs to change their thinking and message to the public. They set up a vaccination hub/tent at the Rockhampton finals match last week which I actually think is a fantastic idea. But they only got 153 people come forward and get the jab. That is not good odds!

Anyone who thinks they can avoid an outbreak of delta are kidding themselves. To prevent serious illness vaccination is the only way forward

The media campaigns in Sydney/NSW are fabulous, they sell the positives of being vaccinated. We have the music industry talking it up, selling the lifestyle you can have being jabbed etc.

I really think the NRL has dropped the ball here. It was awesome to see Elliott and Hudson getting vaccinated on instagram the other week. That should of been on the Raiders website and NRL website
More indigenous players need to be seen getting the jab, clubs rewarding members for being jabbed etc.

Players ( both Sydney and Canberra players) saying we are thinking of you all in lockdown and hope you are ok etc really don't cut the mustard when you see they stayed up there later for a holiday whilst their fans stayed in lockdown . It really wasnt a great look tbh

I really hope the nrl and clubs do more to encourage vaccination because people listen to them, especially the indigenous kids

[cat]

I think Cat has a point, she was just obviously irked by GE biased bullcrap.

Honestly, on anything related to NSW GE just posts absolute rubbish. He is obviously a smart man, but for whatever reason he does not like NSW and that comes through in every single post about NSW.

When you are a resident and someone who makes up part of NSW it would be natural to react to some of that garbage taking it personally.

Thanks papa,

I do think its interesting that GE doesn't seem to be able to see a single thing the act does wrong ( or Queensland) yet his hatred for gladys and morrison is obsessive.

NSW has not been perfect but we have done a hell of a lot better then any other state or territory AND a hell of a lot more work then any other state or territory.

Can you imagine if Sydney went thats it, no more returned travellers coming in here, no more freight, no more trucking supplies around the country etc etc.

You know all the Pfizer and moderna arrives in Sydney first and then is distributed, we could just shut our borders and keep it all

[Mickey_Raider]

Wow the Barr is doing a great job at fobbing off his screw ups onto NSW.

The simple facts are delta spreads very quickly and easily.

You guys were so so quick to say the citizens of Sydney were complacent. Well by the the looks of the number of people infectious in the community and the high number of mystery cases in Canberra and add to that the low testing numbers ( even Barr keeps telling you they need to be higher) as well as the number of people walking around without masks on ( we see footage here of Canberra like you judged footage from Sydney) the ACT has a very big problem with complacency.

Maybe Barr needs to start helping your businesses, and getting everyone doing the right thing instead of blaming elsewhere.

What about the people from the ACT who quickly left and spread it all around the south coast? The people who contracted the virus in Canberra and spread it to Goulburn?

Maybe you shouldn't have been living in fantasy land with full basement nightclubs, proper check in systems etc and higher screen testing and you wouldn't be in the mess you are.

Watching the case numbers and projectory of both ACT and Vic I would say NSW has done a much better job with delta and with a vaccination rate of above 85% double dose Christmas and 2022 are looking great.

Watching Barr every day in his press conference he looks completely lost and is deflecting blame because he knows he screwed up

Cat, I am struggling to follow your line of reasoning.

It seems like you are suggesting that Barr screwed up by not being able to control delta...and yet NSW has done a fabulous job by....not being able to control delta?

[cat]

Wow the Barr is doing a great job at fobbing off his screw ups onto NSW.

The simple facts are delta spreads very quickly and easily.

You guys were so so quick to say the citizens of Sydney were complacent. Well by the the looks of the number of people infectious in the community and the high number of mystery cases in Canberra and add to that the low testing numbers ( even Barr keeps telling you they need to be higher) as well as the number of people walking around without masks on ( we see footage here of Canberra like you judged footage from Sydney) the ACT has a very big problem with complacency.

Maybe Barr needs to start helping your businesses, and getting everyone doing the right thing instead of blaming elsewhere.

What about the people from the ACT who quickly left and spread it all around the south coast? The people who contracted the virus in Canberra and spread it to Goulburn?

Maybe you shouldn't have been living in fantasy land with full basement nightclubs, proper check in systems etc and higher screen testing and you wouldn't be in the mess you are.

Watching the case numbers and projectory of both ACT and Vic I would say NSW has done a much better job with delta and with a vaccination rate of above 85% double dose Christmas and 2022 are looking great.

Watching Barr every day in his press conference he looks completely lost and is deflecting blame because he knows he screwed up

Cat, I am struggling to follow your line of reasoning.

It seems like you are suggesting that Barr screwed up by not being able to control delta...and yet NSW has done a fabulous job by....not being able to control delta?

Barr has screwed up by not thinking delta was coming to the ACT , that some how the ACT is some special place delta cant travel. He allowed full basement night clubs to open, very little check ins with the app etc. And no real testing

This led to complacency and lack of preparation in Canberra. The fact that there are so many mystery cases still un connected shows it was circulating well before the nightclub case

Canberra is not listening to Barr, he keeps telling you testing numbers need to be well above 3k and they are not, businesses are not being covid safe ( listen to his press conferences), masks are not being worn etc.

He hasn't been able to support businesses financially yet.

Instead of being honest with the public he just keeps blaming nsw. That is not a leader! That is someone covering his own butt.

You can not totally control delta, that is a fact. You can slow the progress until you are fully vaccinated.

Nsw admits we can not control it , however, we have slowed the progress, we have reduced the hospitalisation and deaths . Yes our hospitals are stretched but they are coping. We are getting jabs in arms, we are continuing to do the heavy lifting for ALL of the country.

Really what has the ACT done to support the nation during the pandemic?

[FuiFui BradBrad]

Wow the Barr is doing a great job at fobbing off his screw ups onto NSW.

The simple facts are delta spreads very quickly and easily.

You guys were so so quick to say the citizens of Sydney were complacent. Well by the the looks of the number of people infectious in the community and the high number of mystery cases in Canberra and add to that the low testing numbers ( even Barr keeps telling you they need to be higher) as well as the number of people walking around without masks on ( we see footage here of Canberra like you judged footage from Sydney) the ACT has a very big problem with complacency.

Maybe Barr needs to start helping your businesses, and getting everyone doing the right thing instead of blaming elsewhere.

What about the people from the ACT who quickly left and spread it all around the south coast? The people who contracted the virus in Canberra and spread it to Goulburn?

Maybe you shouldn't have been living in fantasy land with full basement nightclubs, proper check in systems etc and higher screen testing and you wouldn't be in the mess you are.

Watching the case numbers and projectory of both ACT and Vic I would say NSW has done a much better job with delta and with a vaccination rate of above 85% double dose Christmas and 2022 are looking great.

Watching Barr every day in his press conference he looks completely lost and is deflecting blame because he knows he screwed up

Playing devil’s advocate, do we know for sure cases came from ACT people fleeing the state? Someone from Vic could have hopped the border and spread it down south. The last Goulburn case came from a Sydney painter..

I know there was concern in Bega around two groups, one was a local Football team who headed to Canberra for a football tournament, and one was a church choir group. They both left Bega for Canberra and came back when the cases started.

That’s 2 bus loads of people who could have spread the virus from ACT

[-TW-]

I'm pretty sure the south coast cases were linked to Sydney not Canberra, but hey who needs facts

Cat sure as hell doesnt

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[cat]

Wow the Barr is doing a great job at fobbing off his screw ups onto NSW.

The simple facts are delta spreads very quickly and easily.

You guys were so so quick to say the citizens of Sydney were complacent. Well by the the looks of the number of people infectious in the community and the high number of mystery cases in Canberra and add to that the low testing numbers ( even Barr keeps telling you they need to be higher) as well as the number of people walking around without masks on ( we see footage here of Canberra like you judged footage from Sydney) the ACT has a very big problem with complacency.

Maybe Barr needs to start helping your businesses, and getting everyone doing the right thing instead of blaming elsewhere.

What about the people from the ACT who quickly left and spread it all around the south coast? The people who contracted the virus in Canberra and spread it to Goulburn?

Maybe you shouldn't have been living in fantasy land with full basement nightclubs, proper check in systems etc and higher screen testing and you wouldn't be in the mess you are.

Watching the case numbers and projectory of both ACT and Vic I would say NSW has done a much better job with delta and with a vaccination rate of above 85% double dose Christmas and 2022 are looking great.

Watching Barr every day in his press conference he looks completely lost and is deflecting blame because he knows he screwed up

Playing devil’s advocate, do we know for sure cases came from ACT people fleeing the state? Someone from Vic could have hopped the border and spread it down south. The last Goulburn case came from a Sydney painter..

I know there was concern in Bega around two groups, one was a local Football team who headed to Canberra for a football tournament, and one was a church choir group. They both left Bega for Canberra and came back when the cases started.

That’s 2 bus loads of people who could have spread the virus from ACT

Yes we ,
If you follow the NSW press conferences and the ACT ones at the beginning of their out break we know that there have been cases in Goulburn and queanbeyan linked back to the ACT

The painter in Goulburn was from a long time back and no further cases came from it.
There have been more since then.

The cases in Batemans bay have also been geno sequenced back to the ACT.

At the end of the day NSW isnt making a big song and dance about it as we just want vaccination rates high.

Our citizens and leaders dont feel the need to blame others to cover our own mistakes

We are 1 country, with the 1 aim of getting out of this with high vaccination rates.
Nsw worked out a long time ago delta is different, it doesn't recognise borders etc.

[cat]

I'm pretty sure the south coast cases were linked to Sydney not Canberra, but hey who needs facts

Cat sure as hell doesnt

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Which group of cases? Because there were ones recently geno sequenced back to Canberra. Maybe speak to a few locals down there they will tell you whats going on...

[greeneyed]

Let's have a look at some actual analysis of what's occurred in NSW and the ACT and some projections. Some claims being made are demonstrably incorrect.

The graph above (focus on the ones on the right) shows NSW had seven phases of tightening, and the NSW government was slow in putting public health measures in place to control the most recent outbreak. That outbreak grew in an uncontrollable way. It looks like the outbreak has peaked in NSW and is now on the way down. NSW has only recently got the Reff down to about 1. Sadly, the outbreak was exported from Sydney to the regions of NSW, the ACT and Victoria, initially due to lack of measures from the NSW government to contain it to Sydney.

Even with today's figure, we can see in the above graph there is a small projected increase, with the ACT peaking at around 20 cases a day shortly. The Reff is still around 1. Growth in cases has far exceeded growth in the ACT. To suggest that the outcomes in NSW are better than the ACT is incorrect. The outbreak in NSW is projected to be three to four times bigger in NSW than the ACT on a per capita basis. I'd add it makes no sense to make conclusions on the basis of one day's numbers.

There is no evidence that I'm aware of that ACT residents left in large numbers before lockdown and spread the virus on the South Coast. The cases which have emerged (well after the ACT lockdown) - could just as easily be the result of Sydney people travelling there. NSW realised too late that Sydney people were leaving for the regions, before introducing restrictions on that. As far as I'm aware, cases in Goulburn and Queanbeyan reflect the visits of residents of those towns visiting the ACT.

There is no evidence of widespread lack of compliance with health orders in the ACT (eg. check in apps etc) - though business compliance on mask wearing has been pulled into line. We hear about lack of compliance in NSW too, even now. We see no evidence of mass gatherings of people in the ACT of the sort that we see in Sydney. Testing numbers in the ACT have been very high, on a per capita basis, often above that in NSW. There is no doubt that testing rates, particularly on weekends have been lower than the 3,000 a day benchmark that the government has been seeking. But those days have not been common.

If the ACT's response can be criticised for anything, it is the lack of a mask mandate when that applied in surrounding NSW regions. But then when the ACT went into lockdown due to one case, we should recall that the ACT immediately put in a tighter mask mandate than in NSW - where COVID was already well out of control.

In terms of the fully vaccinated, the ACT is forecast to hit the 70 and 80 per cent either before or at the about the same time as NSW (despite NSW receiving priority in vaccine supply).

It is arguable that the ACT did not shut down the border hard enough. That's difficult when the entry points into the ACT are so many, and the border towns are so heavily integrated with Canberra. However, tighter controls and bringing in the military for assistance with border controls is the other thing they might have done earlier.

Strangely, the criticism of the ACT Chief Minister in two recent press conferences was not because of either of those issues. Nine Media (Chris Uhlmann and Phil Coorey... with the latter, ironically, the author of "The Woman Who Saved Australia") appeared one day and Sky News the next, and dominated the questioning. The criticism was not that the ACT was "complacent", but that they weren't "opening up" and not opening up fast enough. It is understandable, in the circumstances that Mr Barr pointed out to Mr Coorey that the outbreak originated in NSW - and that the alternative right now was even less palatable.

I don't think Andrew Barr has by any means been perfect. But he's been reasoned, balanced and sensible and done a fairly good job.

I've been critical of the NSW and federal governments for their recent performance for well documented reasons. Their failings are at the origin of the situation we find ourselves in now - and they deserve to be held accountable for the scale and gravity of them. I've been critical of the performance of a range of other States and governments as well. I don't "hate" anyone. I have no concern what States are involved.

[cat]

ACT testing rates fir this week
Friday- 2051
Thursday 1856
Wednesday 3212
Tuesday 2737
Monday 2588

Every day there are 8+ mystery cases with no known link

Based on those extremely low testing numbers AND the number of mystery cases with no known link it is obvious there are multiple strands of the virus curculating through the community without being detected by testing
This would mean your Reff is a lot higher then you realise.

Based on the number in the community whilst infectious every day and your extremely low testing numbers you are missing a lot of cases.

GE dont just look at the modelling that makes your arguments right- look at the real picture

And in terms of people escaping the act for the coast before the lockdown go back and look at the streams of cars on social media heading down the coast that day, talk to the locals. You would've thought it was a long weekend!

[cat]

ACT testing rates fir this week
Friday- 2051
Thursday 1856
Wednesday 3212
Tuesday 2737
Monday 2588

Every day there are 8+ mystery cases with no known link

Based on those extremely low testing numbers AND the number of mystery cases with no known link it is obvious there are multiple strands of the virus curculating through the community without being detected by testing
This would mean your Reff is a lot higher then you realise.

Based on the number in the community whilst infectious every day and your extremely low testing numbers you are missing a lot of cases.

GE dont just look at the modelling that makes your arguments right- look at the real picture

And in terms of people escaping the act for the coast before the lockdown go back and look at the streams of cars on social media heading down the coast that day, talk to the locals. You would've thought it was a long weekend!

The days before this week were low too
2245 for last satu33
2272 for last sunday
2239 last Friday
3324 last thursday ( you got to 3000!)
3467 last wednsday
2669 last Tue
2602 last mobday
1628 2 sundays back


So GE when you say days under 3000 are rare did you mean days over 3000 are rare???


With so many mystery cases and so few tests your reff is way off

[FuiFui BradBrad]

I'm pretty sure the south coast cases were linked to Sydney not Canberra, but hey who needs facts

Cat sure as hell doesnt

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Which group of cases? Because there were ones recently geno sequenced back to Canberra. Maybe speak to a few locals down there they will tell you whats going on...

My family live in Bega.. they’re telling me what’s going on, hence the post about the Bega people travelling to Canberra.

[greeneyed]

Let's add some facts on testing and contact tracing.

This week, there have been 1310 COVID cases in NSW which can be linked to known sources. There were 7,664 cases from an unknown source (85 per cent of the total). The contact tracing in NSW has been completely overwhelmed for some time. The numbers highlight how seriously out of control the spread of the virus became. At the beginning of this week, the ACT government said that they had a total of 53 unexplained cases in this outbreak. That's 10 per cent of the total.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectiou ... s-nsw.aspx

The testing rates in NSW have been boosted by requirements on workers from certain LGAs to be repeatedly tested even without symptoms. That has no doubt sensible with the virus circulating in an uncontrolled fashion. It makes no sense to do that in the ACT at present. They are about 40 per cent of the testing rates in NSW in the last seven days on a per capita basis. Clearly, the ACT government would like the testing numbers to be higher, at about 3,000 a day... but they are the result of people experiencing symptoms and who have been in hot spots. I acknowledge there have been a number of days below that. However, they are not "very low" either. The average in the past seven days has been 2,775 in the ACT. Since the start of lockdown, the ACT has averaged about 4,000 tests a day.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-a ... nd-results

The Reff estimates for various jurisdictions and the country are derived statistically, and have confidence intervals around them, because of the vagaries. You just need to look at what the confidence intervals are in the graphs I quoted above.

I'll add this too.

NSW government waited two days to lock down Sydney after West Hoxton superspreader party: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-13/ ... /100456434

[cat]

GE your exact words were that the ACT has been over 3000 most days, I have proven they have not.
Don't be a pollie and ignore the actual question

Answer- were you wrong when you said the testing numbers were above 3000 daily in the ACT with the rare day below?

Can you admit you were wrong GE?

[cat]

I'm pretty sure the south coast cases were linked to Sydney not Canberra, but hey who needs facts

Cat sure as hell doesnt

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Which group of cases? Because there were ones recently geno sequenced back to Canberra. Maybe speak to a few locals down there they will tell you whats going on...

My family live in Bega.. they’re telling me what’s going on, hence the post about the Bega people travelling to Canberra.

Well friends in Batemans bay tell me there are plenty of ACT number plates driving around and cases linked to them.
It was actually said in both ACT and NSW press conferences weeks ago

[Dr Zaius]

Let's have a look at some actual analysis of what's occurred in NSW and the ACT and some projections. Some claims being made are demonstrably incorrect.

The graph above (focus on the ones on the right) shows NSW had seven phases of tightening, and the NSW government was slow in putting public health measures in place to control the most recent outbreak. That outbreak grew in an uncontrollable way. It looks like the outbreak has peaked in NSW and is now on the way down. NSW has only recently got the Reff down to about 1. Sadly, the outbreak was exported from Sydney to the regions of NSW, the ACT and Victoria, initially due to lack of measures from the NSW government to contain it to Sydney.

Even with today's figure, we can see in the above graph there is a small projected increase, with the ACT peaking at around 20 cases a day shortly. The Reff is still around 1. Growth in cases has far exceeded growth in the ACT. To suggest that the outcomes in NSW are better than the ACT is incorrect. The outbreak in NSW is projected to be three to four times bigger in NSW than the ACT on a per capita basis. I'd add it makes no sense to make conclusions on the basis of one day's numbers.

There is no evidence that I'm aware of that ACT residents left in large numbers before lockdown and spread the virus on the South Coast. The cases which have emerged (well after the ACT lockdown) - could just as easily be the result of Sydney people travelling there. NSW realised too late that Sydney people were leaving for the regions, before introducing restrictions on that. As far as I'm aware, cases in Goulburn and Queanbeyan reflect the visits of residents of those towns visiting the ACT.

There is no evidence of widespread lack of compliance with health orders in the ACT (eg. check in apps etc) - though business compliance on mask wearing has been pulled into line. We hear about lack of compliance in NSW too, even now. We see no evidence of mass gatherings of people in the ACT of the sort that we see in Sydney. Testing numbers in the ACT have been very high, on a per capita basis, often above that in NSW. There is no doubt that testing rates, particularly on weekends have been lower than the 3,000 a day benchmark that the government has been seeking. But those days have not been common.

If the ACT's response can be criticised for anything, it is the lack of a mask mandate when that applied in surrounding NSW regions. But then when the ACT went into lockdown due to one case, we should recall that the ACT immediately put in a tighter mask mandate than in NSW - where COVID was already well out of control.

In terms of the fully vaccinated, the ACT is forecast to hit the 70 and 80 per cent either before or at the about the same time as NSW (despite NSW receiving priority in vaccine supply).

It is arguable that the ACT did not shut down the border hard enough. That's difficult when the entry points into the ACT are so many, and the border towns are so heavily integrated with Canberra. However, tighter controls and bringing in the military for assistance with border controls is the other thing they might have done earlier.

Strangely, the criticism of the ACT Chief Minister in two recent press conferences was not because of either of those issues. Nine Media (Chris Uhlmann and Phil Coorey... with the latter, ironically, the author of "The Woman Who Saved Australia") appeared one day and Sky News the next, and dominated the questioning. The criticism was not that the ACT was "complacent", but that they weren't "opening up" and not opening up fast enough. It is understandable, in the circumstances that Mr Barr pointed out to Mr Coorey that the outbreak originated in NSW - and that the alternative right now was even less palatable.

I don't think Andrew Barr has by any means been perfect. But he's been reasoned, balanced and sensible and done a fairly good job.

I've been critical of the NSW and federal governments for their recent performance for well documented reasons. Their failings are at the origin of the situation we find ourselves in now - and they deserve to be held accountable for the scale and gravity of them. I've been critical of the performance of a range of other States and governments as well. I don't "hate" anyone. I have no concern what States are involved.

No evidence that ACT residents spread it to the South Coast and no evidence of non compliance from ACT residents with health orders, but you are happy to assert that the difficulty managing the outbreak in the ACT is continual infection introduced from Sydney - without evidence.

Has Auckland been locked down for 4.5 weeks because of continued incursions from Sydney also? When Melbourne's peak surpasses Sydney's in a few weeks, will that be continued incursions from Sydney also?

They could have locked down in Sydney harder, but it's time people accept that this is a different virus to last year, is incredibly difficult to manage, and that given that it was entrenched in South Western Sydney 3 days after the index case, harder, faster measures may have made little difference in the long run.

We need to move past blaming, agree that this is a difficult situation and work together to get out of it.

[FuiFui BradBrad]

I'm pretty sure the south coast cases were linked to Sydney not Canberra, but hey who needs facts

Cat sure as hell doesnt

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Which group of cases? Because there were ones recently geno sequenced back to Canberra. Maybe speak to a few locals down there they will tell you whats going on...

My family live in Bega.. they’re telling me what’s going on, hence the post about the Bega people travelling to Canberra.

Well friends in Batemans bay tell me there are plenty of ACT number plates driving around and cases linked to them.
It was actually said in both ACT and NSW press conferences weeks ago

Pshht. I thought you were talking about the South Coast. Batemans Bay is north!

[FuiFui BradBrad]

Let's have a look at some actual analysis of what's occurred in NSW and the ACT and some projections. Some claims being made are demonstrably incorrect.

The graph above (focus on the ones on the right) shows NSW had seven phases of tightening, and the NSW government was slow in putting public health measures in place to control the most recent outbreak. That outbreak grew in an uncontrollable way. It looks like the outbreak has peaked in NSW and is now on the way down. NSW has only recently got the Reff down to about 1. Sadly, the outbreak was exported from Sydney to the regions of NSW, the ACT and Victoria, initially due to lack of measures from the NSW government to contain it to Sydney.

Even with today's figure, we can see in the above graph there is a small projected increase, with the ACT peaking at around 20 cases a day shortly. The Reff is still around 1. Growth in cases has far exceeded growth in the ACT. To suggest that the outcomes in NSW are better than the ACT is incorrect. The outbreak in NSW is projected to be three to four times bigger in NSW than the ACT on a per capita basis. I'd add it makes no sense to make conclusions on the basis of one day's numbers.

There is no evidence that I'm aware of that ACT residents left in large numbers before lockdown and spread the virus on the South Coast. The cases which have emerged (well after the ACT lockdown) - could just as easily be the result of Sydney people travelling there. NSW realised too late that Sydney people were leaving for the regions, before introducing restrictions on that. As far as I'm aware, cases in Goulburn and Queanbeyan reflect the visits of residents of those towns visiting the ACT.

There is no evidence of widespread lack of compliance with health orders in the ACT (eg. check in apps etc) - though business compliance on mask wearing has been pulled into line. We hear about lack of compliance in NSW too, even now. We see no evidence of mass gatherings of people in the ACT of the sort that we see in Sydney. Testing numbers in the ACT have been very high, on a per capita basis, often above that in NSW. There is no doubt that testing rates, particularly on weekends have been lower than the 3,000 a day benchmark that the government has been seeking. But those days have not been common.

If the ACT's response can be criticised for anything, it is the lack of a mask mandate when that applied in surrounding NSW regions. But then when the ACT went into lockdown due to one case, we should recall that the ACT immediately put in a tighter mask mandate than in NSW - where COVID was already well out of control.

In terms of the fully vaccinated, the ACT is forecast to hit the 70 and 80 per cent either before or at the about the same time as NSW (despite NSW receiving priority in vaccine supply).

It is arguable that the ACT did not shut down the border hard enough. That's difficult when the entry points into the ACT are so many, and the border towns are so heavily integrated with Canberra. However, tighter controls and bringing in the military for assistance with border controls is the other thing they might have done earlier.

Strangely, the criticism of the ACT Chief Minister in two recent press conferences was not because of either of those issues. Nine Media (Chris Uhlmann and Phil Coorey... with the latter, ironically, the author of "The Woman Who Saved Australia") appeared one day and Sky News the next, and dominated the questioning. The criticism was not that the ACT was "complacent", but that they weren't "opening up" and not opening up fast enough. It is understandable, in the circumstances that Mr Barr pointed out to Mr Coorey that the outbreak originated in NSW - and that the alternative right now was even less palatable.

I don't think Andrew Barr has by any means been perfect. But he's been reasoned, balanced and sensible and done a fairly good job.

I've been critical of the NSW and federal governments for their recent performance for well documented reasons. Their failings are at the origin of the situation we find ourselves in now - and they deserve to be held accountable for the scale and gravity of them. I've been critical of the performance of a range of other States and governments as well. I don't "hate" anyone. I have no concern what States are involved.

No evidence that ACT residents spread it to the South Coast and no evidence of non compliance from ACT residents with health orders, but you are happy to assert that the difficulty managing the outbreak in the ACT is continual infection introduced from Sydney - without evidence.

Has Auckland been locked down for 4.5 weeks because of continued incursions from Sydney also? When Melbourne's peak surpasses Sydney's in a few weeks, will that be continued incursions from Sydney also?

They could have locked down in Sydney harder, but it's time people accept that this is a different virus to last year, is incredibly difficult to manage, and that given that it was entrenched in South Western Sydney 3 days after the index case, harder, faster measures may have made little difference in the long run.

We need to move past blaming, agree that this is a difficult situation and work together to get out of it.

This post is too logical for this thread Doc

[cat]

GE your exact words were that the ACT has been over 3000 most days, I have proven they have not.
Don't be a pollie and ignore the actual question

Answer- were you wrong when you said the testing numbers were above 3000 daily in the ACT with the rare day below?

Can you admit you were wrong GE?

So you cant admit you were wrong GE?

[cat]

I'm pretty sure the south coast cases were linked to Sydney not Canberra, but hey who needs facts

Cat sure as hell doesnt

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Which group of cases? Because there were ones recently geno sequenced back to Canberra. Maybe speak to a few locals down there they will tell you whats going on...

My family live in Bega.. they’re telling me what’s going on, hence the post about the Bega people travelling to Canberra.

Well friends in Batemans bay tell me there are plenty of ACT number plates driving around and cases linked to them.
It was actually said in both ACT and NSW press conferences weeks ago

Pshht. I thought you were talking about the South Coast. Batemans Bay is north!

Sorry Wollongong down is South coast for us
Palm beach up North coast

[FuiFui BradBrad]

Which group of cases? Because there were ones recently geno sequenced back to Canberra. Maybe speak to a few locals down there they will tell you whats going on...

My family live in Bega.. they’re telling me what’s going on, hence the post about the Bega people travelling to Canberra.

Well friends in Batemans bay tell me there are plenty of ACT number plates driving around and cases linked to them.
It was actually said in both ACT and NSW press conferences weeks ago

Pshht. I thought you were talking about the South Coast. Batemans Bay is north!

Sorry Wollongong down is South coast for us
Palm beach up North coast

Even though I’ve been in Sydney since 2002, anything past Bega sale yards is South, and anything above Narooma is north.

But anyone who has ever lived from Ulladulla - Eden is “From down home”, much to the ire of Mrs Fui

[cat]

Let's have a look at some actual analysis of what's occurred in NSW and the ACT and some projections. Some claims being made are demonstrably incorrect.

The graph above (focus on the ones on the right) shows NSW had seven phases of tightening, and the NSW government was slow in putting public health measures in place to control the most recent outbreak. That outbreak grew in an uncontrollable way. It looks like the outbreak has peaked in NSW and is now on the way down. NSW has only recently got the Reff down to about 1. Sadly, the outbreak was exported from Sydney to the regions of NSW, the ACT and Victoria, initially due to lack of measures from the NSW government to contain it to Sydney.

Even with today's figure, we can see in the above graph there is a small projected increase, with the ACT peaking at around 20 cases a day shortly. The Reff is still around 1. Growth in cases has far exceeded growth in the ACT. To suggest that the outcomes in NSW are better than the ACT is incorrect. The outbreak in NSW is projected to be three to four times bigger in NSW than the ACT on a per capita basis. I'd add it makes no sense to make conclusions on the basis of one day's numbers.

There is no evidence that I'm aware of that ACT residents left in large numbers before lockdown and spread the virus on the South Coast. The cases which have emerged (well after the ACT lockdown) - could just as easily be the result of Sydney people travelling there. NSW realised too late that Sydney people were leaving for the regions, before introducing restrictions on that. As far as I'm aware, cases in Goulburn and Queanbeyan reflect the visits of residents of those towns visiting the ACT.

There is no evidence of widespread lack of compliance with health orders in the ACT (eg. check in apps etc) - though business compliance on mask wearing has been pulled into line. We hear about lack of compliance in NSW too, even now. We see no evidence of mass gatherings of people in the ACT of the sort that we see in Sydney. Testing numbers in the ACT have been very high, on a per capita basis, often above that in NSW. There is no doubt that testing rates, particularly on weekends have been lower than the 3,000 a day benchmark that the government has been seeking. But those days have not been common.

If the ACT's response can be criticised for anything, it is the lack of a mask mandate when that applied in surrounding NSW regions. But then when the ACT went into lockdown due to one case, we should recall that the ACT immediately put in a tighter mask mandate than in NSW - where COVID was already well out of control.

In terms of the fully vaccinated, the ACT is forecast to hit the 70 and 80 per cent either before or at the about the same time as NSW (despite NSW receiving priority in vaccine supply).

It is arguable that the ACT did not shut down the border hard enough. That's difficult when the entry points into the ACT are so many, and the border towns are so heavily integrated with Canberra. However, tighter controls and bringing in the military for assistance with border controls is the other thing they might have done earlier.

Strangely, the criticism of the ACT Chief Minister in two recent press conferences was not because of either of those issues. Nine Media (Chris Uhlmann and Phil Coorey... with the latter, ironically, the author of "The Woman Who Saved Australia") appeared one day and Sky News the next, and dominated the questioning. The criticism was not that the ACT was "complacent", but that they weren't "opening up" and not opening up fast enough. It is understandable, in the circumstances that Mr Barr pointed out to Mr Coorey that the outbreak originated in NSW - and that the alternative right now was even less palatable.

I don't think Andrew Barr has by any means been perfect. But he's been reasoned, balanced and sensible and done a fairly good job.

I've been critical of the NSW and federal governments for their recent performance for well documented reasons. Their failings are at the origin of the situation we find ourselves in now - and they deserve to be held accountable for the scale and gravity of them. I've been critical of the performance of a range of other States and governments as well. I don't "hate" anyone. I have no concern what States are involved.

No evidence that ACT residents spread it to the South Coast and no evidence of non compliance from ACT residents with health orders, but you are happy to assert that the difficulty managing the outbreak in the ACT is continual infection introduced from Sydney - without evidence.

Has Auckland been locked down for 4.5 weeks because of continued incursions from Sydney also? When Melbourne's peak surpasses Sydney's in a few weeks, will that be continued incursions from Sydney also?

They could have locked down in Sydney harder, but it's time people accept that this is a different virus to last year, is incredibly difficult to manage, and that given that it was entrenched in South Western Sydney 3 days after the index case, harder, faster measures may have made little difference in the long run.

We need to move past blaming, agree that this is a difficult situation and work together to get out of it.

Curious to know your thoughts doc on the testing rates in Canberra

Do you think the reff is correct considering you are testing below 3000 , some days below 2000 per day and have so many mystery cases with no links.

The thing that helped us in Sydney "mop up" the last threads as Dr Chant likes to say was high testing numbers and back testing on mystery cases. Thats how we got the northern beaches cases down and how we actually found many of the outbreaks in the beginning of this outbreak.

If we get cases in regional nsw thats still what we do. Testing numbers in Orange for example were well over 5k and the population in Orange is a lot smaller then Canberra

[irvste]

Let's have a look at some actual analysis of what's occurred in NSW and the ACT and some projections. Some claims being made are demonstrably incorrect.

The graph above (focus on the ones on the right) shows NSW had seven phases of tightening, and the NSW government was slow in putting public health measures in place to control the most recent outbreak. That outbreak grew in an uncontrollable way. It looks like the outbreak has peaked in NSW and is now on the way down. NSW has only recently got the Reff down to about 1. Sadly, the outbreak was exported from Sydney to the regions of NSW, the ACT and Victoria, initially due to lack of measures from the NSW government to contain it to Sydney.

Even with today's figure, we can see in the above graph there is a small projected increase, with the ACT peaking at around 20 cases a day shortly. The Reff is still around 1. Growth in cases has far exceeded growth in the ACT. To suggest that the outcomes in NSW are better than the ACT is incorrect. The outbreak in NSW is projected to be three to four times bigger in NSW than the ACT on a per capita basis. I'd add it makes no sense to make conclusions on the basis of one day's numbers.

There is no evidence that I'm aware of that ACT residents left in large numbers before lockdown and spread the virus on the South Coast. The cases which have emerged (well after the ACT lockdown) - could just as easily be the result of Sydney people travelling there. NSW realised too late that Sydney people were leaving for the regions, before introducing restrictions on that. As far as I'm aware, cases in Goulburn and Queanbeyan reflect the visits of residents of those towns visiting the ACT.

There is no evidence of widespread lack of compliance with health orders in the ACT (eg. check in apps etc) - though business compliance on mask wearing has been pulled into line. We hear about lack of compliance in NSW too, even now. We see no evidence of mass gatherings of people in the ACT of the sort that we see in Sydney. Testing numbers in the ACT have been very high, on a per capita basis, often above that in NSW. There is no doubt that testing rates, particularly on weekends have been lower than the 3,000 a day benchmark that the government has been seeking. But those days have not been common.

If the ACT's response can be criticised for anything, it is the lack of a mask mandate when that applied in surrounding NSW regions. But then when the ACT went into lockdown due to one case, we should recall that the ACT immediately put in a tighter mask mandate than in NSW - where COVID was already well out of control.

In terms of the fully vaccinated, the ACT is forecast to hit the 70 and 80 per cent either before or at the about the same time as NSW (despite NSW receiving priority in vaccine supply).

It is arguable that the ACT did not shut down the border hard enough. That's difficult when the entry points into the ACT are so many, and the border towns are so heavily integrated with Canberra. However, tighter controls and bringing in the military for assistance with border controls is the other thing they might have done earlier.

Strangely, the criticism of the ACT Chief Minister in two recent press conferences was not because of either of those issues. Nine Media (Chris Uhlmann and Phil Coorey... with the latter, ironically, the author of "The Woman Who Saved Australia") appeared one day and Sky News the next, and dominated the questioning. The criticism was not that the ACT was "complacent", but that they weren't "opening up" and not opening up fast enough. It is understandable, in the circumstances that Mr Barr pointed out to Mr Coorey that the outbreak originated in NSW - and that the alternative right now was even less palatable.

I don't think Andrew Barr has by any means been perfect. But he's been reasoned, balanced and sensible and done a fairly good job.

I've been critical of the NSW and federal governments for their recent performance for well documented reasons. Their failings are at the origin of the situation we find ourselves in now - and they deserve to be held accountable for the scale and gravity of them. I've been critical of the performance of a range of other States and governments as well. I don't "hate" anyone. I have no concern what States are involved.

No evidence that ACT residents spread it to the South Coast and no evidence of non compliance from ACT residents with health orders, but you are happy to assert that the difficulty managing the outbreak in the ACT is continual infection introduced from Sydney - without evidence.

Has Auckland been locked down for 4.5 weeks because of continued incursions from Sydney also? When Melbourne's peak surpasses Sydney's in a few weeks, will that be continued incursions from Sydney also?

They could have locked down in Sydney harder, but it's time people accept that this is a different virus to last year, is incredibly difficult to manage, and that given that it was entrenched in South Western Sydney 3 days after the index case, harder, faster measures may have made little difference in the long run.

We need to move past blaming, agree that this is a difficult situation and work together to get out of it.

This post is too logical for this thread Doc

Yes pot shots are the go for this thread it's almost game day levels at times but i mainly look here for the docs comments and some others and try to ignore the infighting which isn't helpful mental health wise given the circumstances we find ourselves in

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[irvste]

Despite some mistakes made we are in bottom 2 for deaths out of 38 oecd countries so that's at least a good thing

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