Coronavirus

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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

I'm sure they can call it from the studio.. can guarantee Palaszczuk isn't changing her mind

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

If it was an AFL game on the other hand!
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:They did take too long to shut the border on Vic though.
But even Queensland didn't close the border to Victoria until they hit 80 cases a day and were a couple of weeks into rising daily case numbers.
I’m not sure what you’re saying?
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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

-TW- wrote: November 17, 2020, 8:36 pm I'm sure they can call it from the studio.. can guarantee Palaszczuk isn't changing her mind

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We would all be better off if we had no Ray Warren, Phil Gould, Andrew Johns for starters.
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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

Dr Zaius wrote: November 17, 2020, 8:47 pm If it was an AFL game on the other hand!
I have no idea what they did for the AFL... but if they didn't force them to quarantine for 14 days, it would certainly be hypocritical.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:They did take too long to shut the border on Vic though.
But even Queensland didn't close the border to Victoria until they hit 80 cases a day and were a couple of weeks into rising daily case numbers.
I’m not sure what you’re saying?
I assume that your point about closing the border too late to Victoria is in reference to NSW and the cross roads cluster. My point is that Queensland closed their border to Victoria at a far later stage than what SA are currently at, without spread into Queensland.

And just to anticipate someone's response, the three women who returned to Brisbane from Victoria with covid did so after the border had closed. They lied on their entry pass and for some reason it was too difficult for Queensland border patrol to work out that they first got on a plane in Melbourne.
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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

They had a hub at a resort

Everyone involved in the grand final had to do quarantine prior.

But most of their games were called from the studio

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

-TW- wrote:They had a hub at a resort

Everyone involved in the grand final had to do quarantine prior.

But most of their games were called from the studio

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They had a hub at the resort. Managed by the AFL, with public health giving strict instructions to butt out. There were numerous breaches in quarantine, some of which made the media, some of which were swept under the rug. This occurred at the peak of the outbreak in Melbourne, at a time when people from rural NSW were having difficulty crossing the border to access specialist health care or visit dying relatives.
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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

Dr Zaius... I can certainly understand why you're against border restrictions which stop people getting the medical attention that they need and for other necessary and humanitarian reasons. But isn't a good idea to restrict geographical movement of people when there is a risk of transmitting the virus? I'm surprised you're so against this. Isn't it one of the chief lessons learned from, say, Italy? I agree that borders are probably being closed unnecessarily, and not opened fast enough (eg after 14 days). But the border issue seems to be being very politicised... but there might be genuine reasons for slowing the movement of people too? Putting everything else aside, what's your medical view on it?
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gangrenous
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Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:
Dr Zaius wrote:
gangrenous wrote:They did take too long to shut the border on Vic though.
But even Queensland didn't close the border to Victoria until they hit 80 cases a day and were a couple of weeks into rising daily case numbers.
I’m not sure what you’re saying?
I assume that your point about closing the border too late to Victoria is in reference to NSW and the cross roads cluster. My point is that Queensland closed their border to Victoria at a far later stage than what SA are currently at, without spread into Queensland.

And just to anticipate someone's response, the three women who returned to Brisbane from Victoria with covid did so after the border had closed. They lied on their entry pass and for some reason it was too difficult for Queensland border patrol to work out that they first got on a plane in Melbourne.
I’m just saying that for Victoria IMO they closed the border too late, after it was clear they were going to have a problem.

Pretty sure you and I were discussing the madness of it remaining open in this very thread.

Risky to say that because you got away with it to that point last time that it’s a safe number to wait for this time. Note I’m not saying that the border should be shut to SA at these numbers (mainly because I haven’t read anything on it and have no idea what the numbers even are!)
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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

greeneyed wrote:
-TW- wrote: November 17, 2020, 8:36 pm I'm sure they can call it from the studio.. can guarantee Palaszczuk isn't changing her mind

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We would all be better off if we had no Ray Warren, Phil Gould, Andrew Johns for starters.
Ain’t that the truth
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

greeneyed wrote:Dr Zaius... I can certainly understand why you're against border restrictions which stop people getting the medical attention that they need and for other necessary and humanitarian reasons. But isn't a good idea to restrict geographical movement of people when there is a risk of transmitting the virus? I'm surprised you're so against this. Isn't it one of the chief lessons learned from, say, Italy? I agree that borders are probably being closed unnecessarily, and not opened fast enough (eg after 14 days). But the border issue seems to be being very politicised... but there might be genuine reasons for slowing the movement of people too? Putting everything else aside, what's your medical view on it?
There is obviously a point at which restriction of movement is important, but that point is when there is uncontrolled community spread, with increasing numbers. A surge not a cluster.

What you are seeing here is a single cluster, with a defined initial contact source (hotel quarantine) and all other cases linked to that initial source. There is no evidence that this has spread throughout Adelaide, and that from Adelaide it will spread throughout Australia. Not at this stage at least.

Sydney has been dealing with such clusters for 6 months. Despite unrestricted travel to Canberra, Wollongong and Newcastle, the virus has not spread from Sydney to those centres in sufficient numbers to induce sustained community transmission. This suggests that if managed corrected, risk of spread with subsequent surge is low. Not zero, but low. Nothing in life is without risk.

The reality is that the pandemic is intensifying overseas. As more Australians come home we will see more of these leaks out of quarantine. We can't keep opening and closing state borders for clusters. We need to weigh up the low risk of open borders against the high risk of physical, mental, social and economic damage of closed borders.
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greeneyed
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

Dr Zaius wrote: November 17, 2020, 9:26 pm
greeneyed wrote:Dr Zaius... I can certainly understand why you're against border restrictions which stop people getting the medical attention that they need and for other necessary and humanitarian reasons. But isn't a good idea to restrict geographical movement of people when there is a risk of transmitting the virus? I'm surprised you're so against this. Isn't it one of the chief lessons learned from, say, Italy? I agree that borders are probably being closed unnecessarily, and not opened fast enough (eg after 14 days). But the border issue seems to be being very politicised... but there might be genuine reasons for slowing the movement of people too? Putting everything else aside, what's your medical view on it?
There is obviously a point at which restriction of movement is important, but that point is when there is uncontrolled community spread, with increasing numbers. A surge not a cluster.

What you are seeing here is a single cluster, with a defined initial contact source (hotel quarantine) and all other cases linked to that initial source. There is no evidence that this has spread throughout Adelaide, and that from Adelaide it will spread throughout Australia. Not at this stage at least.

Sydney has been dealing with such clusters for 6 months. Despite unrestricted travel to Canberra, Wollongong and Newcastle, the virus has not spread from Sydney to those centres in sufficient numbers to induce sustained community transmission. This suggests that if managed corrected, risk of spread with subsequent surge is low. Not zero, but low. Nothing in life is without risk.

The reality is that the pandemic is intensifying overseas. As more Australians come home we will see more of these leaks out of quarantine. We can't keep opening and closing state borders for clusters. We need to weigh up the low risk of open borders against the high risk of physical, mental, social and economic damage of closed borders.
I don’t disagree with any of that. What I find difficult to understand is that the ACT Government is telling Canberrans not to go to South Australia “unnecessarily”. But not the other way around. If it’s not safe for Canberrans to go to South Australia, why is it safe the other way around? The ACT government seems to be meeting people at airports from Adelaide flights... seeing if they have symptoms... and testing them. Not clear if they’re doing the same for those who come in transit from Sydney or Melbourne. No doubt, road travel has no constraint. But we now have five people who’ve arrived from Adelaide by plane in Canberra with symptoms... they’ve been tested and told to go into quarantine. How do do they get on a plane with symptoms? No wonder I’m not keen to get on a plane. I really can’t understand why Canberrans are being told to avoid going to SA, but no message in the other direction? I don’t for the life of me understand it.
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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

We need a centralised unit managing this, declaring hot spots, issuing advice and travel bans. It's so all over the states. The only two things that are predictible are that WA will slam borders closed at a moments notice, and NSW will do everything to keep them open. No one can make any plans for fear of borders being closed while away. The uncertainty breeds anxiety.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gergreg »

greeneyed wrote:
-TW- wrote: November 17, 2020, 8:36 pm I'm sure they can call it from the studio.. can guarantee Palaszczuk isn't changing her mind

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We would all be better off if we had no Ray Warren, Phil Gould, Andrew Johns for starters.
Well there certainly is some quality callers in QLD that could manage.

Vautin "Turn it up"
Wally "QLD dictating terms"
JT "hahahahaha"
Parker "show some respect to these QLD players"
Hodges " <inaudible> "

Rinse, repeat for 80 minutes

GE... "finally a decent commentary team"

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Dr Zaius
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

Things are looking good.

Victoria are three weeks without a case.

NSW are three weeks without an unsourced community transmission.

****ing Adelaide
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-TW-
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by -TW- »

One more week for Queensland to find a new reason not to open the borders

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gangrenous
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by gangrenous »

Might pollute their breeding pool for origin?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sterlk »

Americans are mental. Biden is going to ask them to wear masks for 100 days and they're losing their ****.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

So many people are going to die in America between now and Biden taking the reins.

It could be upwards of two hundred thousand in the next two months alone.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

The horse has well and truly bolted. Election campaigns, followed by Thanksgiving, followed by Christmas and New Years. They need the vaccine...and the general public won't have access to that for 4-5 months.

The people who want to stay safe will take the required precautions and those that don't care about the virus will put themselves and others at risk to maintain their Constitutional right to spread disease.

Biden has no chance to reign this in now. All he can do is encourage people to take sensible precautions. Noone is locking that country down for a month.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Anyone care to take a punt at what the US' final death toll from COVID is going to be?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Mr Squiggle »

600K for the USA
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mr Squiggle wrote:600K for the USA
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Lucy »

Oooh! I like this game. My wife and I play it when the sun goes down. She says warmer regarding what room she is in, it's funny actually.. I always end up locked outside. Stupid door.

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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Lucy wrote:Oooh! I like this game. My wife and I play it when the sun goes down. She says warmer regarding what room she is in, it's funny actually.. I always end up locked outside. Stupid door.

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Re: Coronavirus

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650k by June. What happens after that depends on the vaccine.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Seiffert82 wrote:650k by June. What happens after that depends on the vaccine.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Sid »

The Nickman wrote:
Seiffert82 wrote:650k by June. What happens after that depends on the vaccine.
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650,003 by June?
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by greeneyed »

Harry’s.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

The Nickman wrote: December 9, 2020, 6:16 pm
Seiffert82 wrote:650k by June. What happens after that depends on the vaccine.
Higher
Yeah, looking at some of the projections you're probably right. Looks like they are tracking towards over 500m by the end of Feb.

That dip**** Trump would have won the election and hundreds of thousands of people would have been saved if he had only treated this thing seriously.

In saying that, they asked for it I guess.
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Re: Coronavirus

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To be honest I just wanted to use the word Mickeynomics more than make an monetary statement.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by The Nickman »

Seiffert82 wrote:
The Nickman wrote: December 9, 2020, 6:16 pm
Seiffert82 wrote:650k by June. What happens after that depends on the vaccine.
Higher
Yeah, looking at some of the projections you're probably right. Looks like they are tracking towards over 500m by the end of Feb.

That dip**** Trump would have won the election and hundreds of thousands of people would have been saved if he had only treated this thing seriously.

In saying that, they asked for it I guess.
They’ll pass 300k in the next 24 hours. 400k before the end of January.

February will depend on whether they’re still speeding up or slowing down by then. Could honestly go either way.

500k looks like a solid bet though.
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Dr Zaius »

"Probably for the next 60 to 90 days, we're going to have more deaths per day than we had on 9/11 or we had at Pearl Harbour," Dr Robert Redfield, director of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Council on Foreign Relations on Thursday.

That death toll is likely to top 500,000 by April, according to the model developed by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Deaths could be limited to an estimated 482,000 with a rapid vaccine rollout, but could also soar to nearly 600,000 if more state and local governments ease mandates to wear masks.

By comparison, heart disease killed 655,381 people in the United States and cancer 599,274 in 2018, according to CDC data.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-amer ... 56mvn.html
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Re: Coronavirus

Post by Seiffert82 »

I wonder how many COVID victims in the US (or anywhere for that matter) already had heart disease or cancer?
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