The Politics Thread 2018

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gerg
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gerg »

gangrenous wrote:The main point is that a strong Liberal seat kicked their own party in the balls as a signal they weren’t happy with a combination of:
* the party removing the guy they voted for
* their right wing polices
* their general incompetence

The hope is that the Liberals get the message that there’s a whole bunch of people who want to vote for them, but are sick of the conservative tail wagging the dog and **** things up generally. So the way they could build base is not only through the **** up pandering to the One Nation fan club in southern Qld.
But how can they? Dutton didn't lose the vote by much so there's still plenty of xenophobic, homophobic, biblical people in the party.

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gangrenous
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gangrenous »

That’s the point though. To this point it seems like only the conservatives have had any weight behind their pull with a “come this way, there’s votes over here”. Now the moderates in the party have a result they can point to and say “look, we’ve gone too far and those extra votes are starting to lose our base”.

Based on past form I expect the conservatives to be too **** stupid to learn anything from this. It’s not like they listen to anything outside their ideology. But maybe some of the Liberals with a brain could start to pull the party back.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gerg »

The conservatives in the party are probably some of their longest serving. Maybe the Libs have always been this way and the public has moved on?

I'm not suggesting that the alternative is any better but it appears that many countries are sick of generic politicians.

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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

The best thing that can come from a Phelps win is the emergence of more cashed up or celebrity candidates running as independents.

Social media has created opportunities where they didn't exist before. You can set up a simple Facebook page or website, outline your manifesto and if you've got a few 1000 followers you're well on your way.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Schifty »

Green eyed Mick wrote: October 21, 2018, 7:56 pm

Social media has created opportunities where they didn't exist before. You can set up a simple Facebook page or website, outline your manifesto and if you've got a few 1000 followers you're well on your way.

So you're saying I'm halfway there to being a candidate :hmmm
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

Schifty wrote: October 21, 2018, 8:55 pm
Green eyed Mick wrote: October 21, 2018, 7:56 pm

Social media has created opportunities where they didn't exist before. You can set up a simple Facebook page or website, outline your manifesto and if you've got a few 1000 followers you're well on your way.

So you're saying I'm halfway there to being a candidate :hmmm
The ACT senate race presents an excellent opportunity for an independent.

Since his election Seselja has consistently acted in his own self-interests and those of the religious faction of his party. A quality independent with the right strategy can win the ACT's second senate seat from Seselja.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by papabear »

to be honest I think the media is getting on board a labor win to quickly.

As I have said all along, policies designed to tank a housing market that is already tanking will be punished by the electorate.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

papabear wrote: October 24, 2018, 4:05 pm to be honest I think the media is getting on board a labor win to quickly.

As I have said all along, policies designed to tank a housing market that is already tanking will be punished by the electorate.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gerg »

papabear wrote:to be honest I think the media is getting on board a labor win to quickly.

As I have said all along, policies designed to tank a housing market that is already tanking will be punished by the electorate.
The LIBs are making it look like they actually don't want to be re-elected.

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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

More bombs. This time Biden and De Niro.

Going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out with the Mid-terms coming up and a legitimate opportunity for the Dems to win back the house and hobble Trump until the 2020 elections.

Also in other lunatic news. This guy is coming to Australia:
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Sossman »

Green eyed Mick wrote:More bombs. This time Biden and De Niro.

Going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out with the Mid-terms coming up and a legitimate opportunity for the Dems to win back the house and hobble Trump until the 2020 elections.

Also in other lunatic news. This guy is coming to Australia:
The "refugee caravan" will save Trump and the republicans.

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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

Sossman wrote: October 26, 2018, 7:48 am
Green eyed Mick wrote:More bombs. This time Biden and De Niro.

Going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out with the Mid-terms coming up and a legitimate opportunity for the Dems to win back the house and hobble Trump until the 2020 elections.

Also in other lunatic news. This guy is coming to Australia:
The "refugee caravan" will save Trump and the republicans.

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Maybe. I think the refugee caravan will be a huge test for Trump both domestically and international.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Manbush »

Wasn’t he the one that shoved a ***** up his butt to prove he didn’t hate gays?
I bow down to thee oh great Nickman, the wisest of the wise, your political adroitness is unsurpassed, your sagacity is unmatched, your wisdom shines through on this forum amongst us mere mortals as bright as your scalp under the light of a full moon, never shall I doubt your analytical prowess again. You are my hero, my lord, my savior, may you accept my offerings so you continue to bless us with your genius.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Manbush »

On the mid terms it’s really pissing me off everyone speaking up the Democrats chances, that sort of talk can lead to complacency, lower democrat turn out and higher republican, one of the reasons I think trump won in the first place.
I bow down to thee oh great Nickman, the wisest of the wise, your political adroitness is unsurpassed, your sagacity is unmatched, your wisdom shines through on this forum amongst us mere mortals as bright as your scalp under the light of a full moon, never shall I doubt your analytical prowess again. You are my hero, my lord, my savior, may you accept my offerings so you continue to bless us with your genius.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

Another terrorist attack in the US. This time a white supremacist has shot up a synagogue in Pittsburgh.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Schifty »

Clearly another Lone Wolf attack.

Meanwhile Trump's phone might have been tapped with people listening to his calls but you know Hillary's emails are still a big thing.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Sossman »

Angry white man terrorists.

The 90s revival we didn't want.

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The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Brewdle »

He was Native American wasn’t he?

Edit: that was the bomb guy sorry


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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by papabear »

Green eyed Mick wrote: October 24, 2018, 6:42 pm
papabear wrote: October 24, 2018, 4:05 pm to be honest I think the media is getting on board a labor win to quickly.

As I have said all along, policies designed to tank a housing market that is already tanking will be punished by the electorate.
mock all you like GEM, but if labor is planning on going to the next election
- weak on housing (which is the economy on the eastern seaboard)
- weak on taxes
- weak on immigration

The coalition may be that bad at attacking labor, that labor win it easily anyways, but really why give them the chance.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gangrenous »

Define weak on taxes and immigration
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Green eyed Mick »

papabear wrote: November 5, 2018, 8:47 am
Green eyed Mick wrote: October 24, 2018, 6:42 pm
papabear wrote: October 24, 2018, 4:05 pm to be honest I think the media is getting on board a labor win to quickly.

As I have said all along, policies designed to tank a housing market that is already tanking will be punished by the electorate.
mock all you like GEM, but if labor is planning on going to the next election
- weak on housing (which is the economy on the eastern seaboard)
- weak on taxes
- weak on immigration

The coalition may be that bad at attacking labor, that labor win it easily anyways, but really why give them the chance.
You repeat the same baseless nonsense over and over.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Schifty »

gangrenous wrote: November 5, 2018, 11:41 am Define weak on taxes and immigration
Labor was in government when Tony Abbott was let into the country.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

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gangrenous wrote: November 5, 2018, 11:41 am Define weak on taxes and immigration
the business community (who I am a very small part of) do decide there votes on things like tax policy.

Whilst I personally dont have any real issue blocking refunds based on franking credits, I understand and agree with the outcry.

Any tax policy reform needs to make tax simpler and fairer not more complicated and less fair. No matter how you sell the policy, if someone pays 30% or 27.5% on there share of the companys profits they have already paid tax on that money once, to receive no recognition of that tax paid is poor policy.

Anyone who agrees with this policy, is likely voting for labor for other reasons, this will only lose them votes.

Immigration - It is not something I personally ever vote on, but you put on the news and you see someone from labor / the greens complaining about kids in detention centres and softening up the rules. I personally dont think this is a vote winner, labor will only ever be seen as weak on immigration and any movement of conversation into this space is bad for them, they are much better off discussing hospitals and schools.

Personally, I am a fan of a no borders approach, but I am a pragmatist and will call bad politics as I see it.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

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Green eyed Mick wrote: November 5, 2018, 6:16 pm

You repeat the same baseless nonsense over and over.
So I share an opinion which is based on fact, the housing market on the eastern seaboard is seriously declining.

You respond with a simpsons clip and that is baseless nonsense.

Now since you have taken the gloves off, I shall remove mine. Slowly.

But for you, I will slow it right down for ya.

It is easy to sell housing policy changes to an electorate when:-
- Those who own houses are already seeing massive gains.
- Those who don't own houses can't afford to buy because their deposit and earning capacity is getting smaller and smaller against the market.

Now we are in a situation
- Those who own have there gains diminished.
- Those who don't own, are not necessarily holding off due to unaffordability but two main reasons:-
- new lending rules so banks dont want to lend to them on those properties anymore.
- they want to sit back and see how much further the market tanks before going in, ie why buy now if its going down another 10% and going to cost me 40K or $140k when I could just wait it out.

You aren't winning many votes on this.

Not to mention that the tax policy was fundamentally flawed in the first place, although when I was first making this point there was less traction to it due to the run away housing market. Now the tide is going out and loud speakers with little quality (such as yourself gem) are reaching for garbage to respond to my posts because making a coherent argument in defence of your communist overlords alludes you.

Live on your knees bitch.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gerg »

papabear wrote:
Green eyed Mick wrote: November 5, 2018, 6:16 pm

You repeat the same baseless nonsense over and over.
So I share an opinion which is based on fact, the housing market on the eastern seaboard is seriously declining.

You respond with a simpsons clip and that is baseless nonsense.

Now since you have taken the gloves, I shall remove mine. Slowly.

But for you, I will slow it right down for ya.

It is easy to sell housing policy changes to an electorate when:-
- Those who own houses are already seeing massive gains.
- Those who don't own houses can't afford to buy because their deposit and earning capacity is getting smaller and smaller against the market.

Now we are in a situation
- Those who own have there gains diminished.
- Those who don't own, are not necessarily holding off due to unaffordability but two main reasons:-
- new lending rules so banks dont want to lend to them on those properties anymore.
- they want to sit back and see how much further the market tanks before going in, ie why buy now if its going down another 10% and going to cost me 40K or $140k when I could just wait it out.

You aren't winning many votes on this.

Not to mention that the tax policy was fundamentally flawed in the first place, although when I was first making this point there was less traction to it due to the run away housing market. Now the tide is going out and loud speakers with little quality (such as yourself gem) are reaching for garbage to respond to my posts because making a coherent argument in defence of your communist overlords alludes you.

Live on your knees bitch.
So the housing market is declining now because of the ALP?

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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by papabear »

no not at all, it will only weaken housing if they get in power and enact their policy.

Current declines you could put to a lot of things:-
- market sentiment
- APRA / lending changes
- changes on foreign ownership
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gerg »

papabear wrote:no not at all, it will only weaken housing if they get in power and enact their policy.

Current declines you could put to a lot of things:-
- market sentiment
- APRA / lending changes
- changes on foreign ownership
But if the housing market continues to decline if there is a change of government couldn't the ALP just blame the LIBs because it was declining while the LIBs were in government? Isn't that how politics works? Take credit for any success and blame the opposition for any failures?

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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

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What labor does when it gets into power is up to them.

I am just saying this policy will be attacked and will cost them votes.

Given the current malaise of a govt this should be a very easy election to win, all labor have to do is shut up on policy outside of health and education and carry on criticising the **** show of the current govt.

Instead they are trying to sell crap and sooner or later people will sniff the wind and they might end up losing the unloveable.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gerg »

The only person it impacts is T_R and his 47 investment properties. I haven't really been following along but wasn't it only going to affect new investment properties?

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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gangrenous »

Labor have bipartisan support for the immigration policy do they not? They’re jumping up and down being clowns saying “you’re putting kids in detention” at the moment. But their policy is to do exactly the same except maybe send an extra half a dozen to be kiwis. I think that’s probably digging themselves a nice hole for if they become government.

The housing market is entirely the Liberal party’s fault for sitting on their hands and not enacting changes in negative gearing and capital gains. It got overheated and now we have the necessary correction. The changes to negative gearing and capital gains aren’t as critical now, but there’s never really a good time to do it and most people seem to be of the opinion it will have limited impact on house prices.

I’m not sure there are too many people crying rivers for wealthy folk paying no tax not getting their refunds.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

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gergreg wrote: November 6, 2018, 5:00 pm The only person it impacts is T_R and his 47 investment properties. I haven't really been following along but wasn't it only going to affect new investment properties?

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Yeah the rule will be grandfathered but who needs facts these days.

Anyway at least ScoMo got a new bus which will tour Queenslands while him and his staff use a RAAF jet to fly around.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by papabear »

Governments should sit on their hands when it comes to markets.

Even with necessities, you want necessities work form then and you will get them. Asking for the govt to provide is just a nicer way of asking those around you to sacrifice and provide what your not willing to.

Enough of free market ideology in one post.

Labor will not gain votes with this housing policy the people who care will vote against them on it, anyone who can justify the policy or likes it was votING that way already.

If you are going to make interest non deductible then it should be non deductible across the board, markets tank themselves but if govt going to come in and manipulate them through tax policy then the tax policy should be fair across the board, across all asset classes.

All interest whether on new builds existing premises, whether on business loans, margin loans, commercial property, vehicles aircraft, medical supplies education facilities, hospitals guns you name it, if it is financed and you pay interest tough luck no deduction.

Then at least it’s fair and you get to see the impact of **** tax policy faster.

For the record, no one is going to invest in new homes if they are losing value like hot cakes because the purchaser is buying an existing home. Even the exemption is I’ll thought out nonsense.

When you have **** policy, you are best of waiting until you get elected to announce it. Unfortunately people who live in an echo chamber who don’t know enough about taxes and the economy all **** cheer their turf together not knowing they are doing there commie godfathers a disservice.

And I see commie in the corrupt effective cool way not in the insulting left / right some political **** like to use.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by Schifty »

US Midterms on tomorrow.

You'd have to be insane to be confident and accurately predict what is going to happen.

There seems to be much higher early voting than usual which favours Democrats as it's all about turnout.

I think Democrats will win the house but not the senate, which sets all sorts of fun and games as they then control committees and can block all of Trump's appointments.
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Re: The Politics Thread 2018

Post by greeneyed »

I hate to agree with papa bear, but taxes should be neutral across asset classes. If interest is deductible for the purpose of one source of income from assets it has to be the same across all asset classes. It is very basic tax policy economics.
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The Politics Thread 2018

Post by gangrenous »

Except people don’t live in educational expenses or shares!!

Honestly I expect that kind of over-simplistic mindset from papabear, not you greeneyed!

Governments shouldn’t interfere in any markets? What garbage. There are numerous industries/services where replication of infrastructure is not practical and so true free market competition isn’t going to happen.

It’s impressive to hold to free markets providing optimal outcomes as we are starting to see real cracks in that facade and the general populace rebelling against the over application of the ideology.

Ridiculous over-simplification of life.
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