2017 Rd 23 Canberra Raiders Holden Cup preview
Canberra Raiders V New Zealand Warriors
Sunday 13 August 11:45am local, 9:45am AEST
Mt Smart Stadium
The Canberra Raiders' Holden Cup finals hopes have just about been extinguished after falling to the first placed Cronulla Sharks in Round 22. The Raiders are now six competition points away from the eighth placed Brisbane Broncos - and have been left languishing in 12th place on the ladder.
Last weekend: Canberra was never really in the contest with a Cronulla side that has only lost twice this season. The Sharks scored four tries and led 20-0 inside the first 20 minutes of the match. Second rower Briton Nikora scored a hat trick tries - in the second, eighth and 18th minute.
The Raiders fought gallantly, with hooker Erin Clark going over from dummy half in the 22nd minute. But the Sharks kept on scoring. In the 25th minute, Cronulla fullback William Kennedy and five-eighth Luke Metcalf combined for a long range try. And five minutes later, Briton's second row partner, Tony Matautia went over for his second, producing a 30-6 lead for the home team.
With less than a minute to the half time break, the Raiders' own boom second rower, Jack Murchie, produced an impressive try, after half Paul Roache delivered a good short pass. The teams went to the sheds with Canberra trailing 30-10.
It was more of the same in the second half. The Sharks were never troubled, but Canberra kept on fighting back. Cronulla was first to score through William Kennedy. But Murchie responded with his second four pointer of the night in the 50th minute - after a good bumping run to the try line.
The Sharks ran rings around the defenders in the lead up to Kyle Flanagan's try just five minutes later - giving Cronulla an imposing 42-16 lead. But the Raiders again responded. A short kick off was regathered by a flying Jarred Tuite - and Canberra was rewarded with a try to Fabien Paletua-Kiri under the posts in the 60th minute. The try reduced the gap to 42-22, but that was the end of the scoring for Canberra. The Sharks went on to win 58-22, with both Nikora and Metcalf getting hat tricks for the home team.
This week's contest: The Raiders travel to Auckland to face the New Zealand Warriors at Mt Smart Stadium this Sunday. The Warriors are placed last in the competition - and have won just three times in 2017. Their 3-17 record compares with the Raiders' 8 and 12. The Warriors are on a five game losing streak - and in their past three matches, both the Cowboys and the Knights have posted 70 points against them. Their last start against Newcastle was a 70-4 defeat. The Raiders have a WWLLL form line in their past five matches.
The Warriors have the worst attack in the competition (scoring an average of 17 points per match) and the second worst defence (conceding 34 points and six tries per match). The Raiders score 24 points and concede 29 points (five tries) per match. The Warriors have a negative points differential of 338 points, the Raiders 107. The Warriors rank last in running metres, line breaks and try assists. The Raiders have a very poor record away (1-9) - which is equal worst, with the Warriors. The Warriors have a 2-8 record at home. Only the Wests Tigers have been less successful at their own home ground in 2017.
Team changes: Coach Brett White has shaken up his team line up, with five eighth Paul Roache replacing Harry Van Dartel at fullback. Van Dartel drops to an extended reserves list. Former Warrior, Erin Clark moves from hooker to half and has been named as captain. Half Lachlan Cooper drops to the interchange bench, while Jarred Tuite is included at hooker. Derek Hay replaces Roach at five eighth.
In the forwards, Fabien Paletua-Kiri will start at prop, with Sione Afemui dropping to the reserves list. Daniel Keir and Jacob Field will form a new second row partnership - with Jack Murchie promoted to Mounties and Hudson Young dropping to the bench. Kye Madden replaces Zac Masters at lock, with Masters retaining a place in the top 17 on the bench.
For the Warriors, Paul Turner has been named to partner Chanel Harris-Tavita in the halves, with Kane Telea in the centres. Captain Chris Sio has been named at prop. Eiden Ackland will start at hooker and Jerome Mamea in the second row.
Opposition to watch: Chanel Harris-Tavita has been the most dangerous this season for the Warriors, with 10 try assists, 12 offloads, seven line breaks and six tries. Centre Kane Telea is the player in this line up who has scored most tries (eight), while his centre partner Melino Fineanganofo tops the tackle breaks (five per match). Those figures are, however, consistent with a team that has struggled in attack.
In the forwards, Christopher Sio is the regular player who puts in most work in defence, averaging 34 tackles per match. He's backed up by Joe Vuna (26 tackles per match) and Tyler Slade (25). Sio also averages just over 100 metres per match with the ball in hand.
Our tip: When these two teams last met - in Round 7 at Canberra Stadium - the Raiders were narrow 18-16 winners. Both teams have lost in their past three matches, but the Warriors' recent form has been much poorer than the Raiders. Canberra has made a significant number of changes to the line up and it is difficult to know how the team will "gel". The Raiders' poor away record is also a reason for concern. But new captain Erin Clark will be very keen to play well against his former team - after making a mid season switch to Canberra. We'll go with the Green Machine in this one... by a fair margin.
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