Matt's Match-ups 2017

[julian87]

I'd have Tedesco over Boyd any day. Far more of a running threat it's not even close. Granted Boyd is the better ball distributor but I know who I'd rather in my side. How would Darius go at the tigers?

The Tigers aren't playing on Wednesday night though are they?

[Matt]

I'd have Tedesco over Boyd any day. Far more of a running threat it's not even close. Granted Boyd is the better ball distributor but I know who I'd rather in my side. How would Darius go at the tigers?

Probably the same as any top level fullback. Moments of skill. Tries hard. Barely any support. Gets the coach fired. Leaves.

If you look at Boyd's 3 yrs in an ordinary Knights side I think you get a good idea. 17 tries in 62 games - not that Boyd has ever been a try scoring machine. Boyd has a Knights win rate of 23%. He still played Origin too, but it helped that QLD were in the middle of their undefeated run.

Tedesco at a very ordinary Tigers has 46 in 80 games over 5 yrs (though he only played 1 game in 2012, so really its 4 yrs). Teddy has a 35% win record. Id back Teddy to have more meters, more line breaks and more tackle busts too. Try assists and line break assists would be an interesting one to know.

[Archer]

I wonder how the 1995 QLD stats stacked up against NSW that year.
No-one will ever convince me that these "Player x beats player Y in the rep arena because of so and so club games/stats" arguments hold any water whatsoever.

[Matt]

Matt’s Match-ups Rd 13: Raiders V Sea Eagles



State of Origin I will be the talking point this week, and with the Sea Eagles coming off the bye, I’ll save my words this week.

Let’s get straight to the re-match.

Sea Eagles V Raiders

Matthew Wright 1. Jack Wighton
Jorge Taufau 2. Nick Cotric
Dylan Walker 3. Jarrod Croker ©
Brian Kelly 4. Joseph Leilua
Akuila Uate 5. Jordan Rapana
Blake Green 6. Blake Austin
Daly Cherry-Evans © 7. Aidan Sezer
Brenton Lawrence 8. Junior Paulo
Apisai Koroisau 9. Josh Hodgson
Martin Taupau 10. Shannon Boyd
Frank Winterstein 11. Josh Papalii
Curtis Sironen 12. Elliott Whitehead
Jake Trbojevic 13. Sia Soliola

Interchange
*Jackson Hastings 15. vs 14. Adam Clysdale
*Lewis Brown 14. vs 15. Joseph Tapine
Nate Myles 16. Clay Priest
Addin Fonua-Blake 17. Dunamis Lui

Extended Bench
Jarrad Kennedy 18. Scott Sorenson
Cameron Cullen 19. Royce Hunt
Jonathan Wright 20. Brent Naden
Not Named 21. Lachlan Croker
Lloyd Perrett 22. Not Named

*As the Sea Eagles have gone against bench naming convention, I’ve paired the like players.

(Bolded players are the winners of the skin. The extended bench is excluded.)

Match-ups:

Fullbacks:
The absence of Tom Trbojevic through injury is a massive loss for Manly; Matthew Wright has played just once since the Trbojevic injury. Jack Wighton looked unburdened on the weekend, playing with freedom, having signed a new deal to the end of 2020. He ran hard, flattened a few smaller Roosters players, while he also showed some silky passing.

Wingers:
Jordan Rapana bagged another double on the weekend, and now sits on top of the try scoring ladder for 2017 with 11. That’s enough to hold off a rejuvenated Akuila Uate, who looks to be close to career best form.

Last time these two teams met, I gave Jorge Taufau the skin on the other wing due to his try scoring and metres gained. Since then, Taufau has extended his margin over Nick Cotric in metres gained. However, his average metres per carry has fallen to 9.4 metres, while Cotric’s has risen to 10.9 metres. Taufau now only has one more try. But Cotric has more line breaks (7-5) and offloads (5-1) and more than double the tackle busts. Cotric has to fight with his other outside backs for carries, while Uate and Taufau do the bulk of the work for the Manly backs. Cotric is also coming up with game changing plays, intercepts, long range breaks and showed good awareness to save a 40/20 on the weekend. I’m going with the 2017 Rookie of the Year.

Centres:
He is Public Enemy Number 1 this week, but if the Raiders are smart, they won’t let Dylan Walker know it this time. Unfortunately for Jarrod Croker, the man who just passed 1500 NRL points, Walker outpoints him in every statistical category except missed tackles and goal kicking percentage. Since they last met, both players have posted two tries each. Given Walker was the man who beat the Raiders in Canberra, the balance tips in his favour this time.

Brian Kelly was a noted try scorer in the Toyota Cup, but hasn’t scored since Round 7. He is still making just over 100 metres a game, but is also now averaging nearly three missed tackles a game. Joseph Leilua is starting to hit his stride. He isn’t busting the line just yet, but he is certainly bending it, having made 187m in the past fortnight. ‘Leipana’ is on the rise again, and it’s a wonderful thing to see.

Halves:
Aidan Sezer has been much better over the past fortnight. He has been playing a genuine first receiver role, and that is working for him. His kicking, organisation and creativity have all lifted. The problem is, Daly Cherry-Evans has been in the top three or four halfbacks most of the year. It’s getting closer, but Cherry-Evans still leads Sezer in try assists, try involvements, try contributions and line break assists.

Like his halves partner, Blake Austin has improved in the last couple of weeks. His support running and ball running against the Roosters started to look dangerous again. He might want to look at his footwear though, as they cost him on a couple of occasions on the weekend - especially a no try in the corner. Unfortunately for Austin, like his halves partner, his opponent, Blake Green, has also been more consistent in 2017. Green just edges Austin in try assists, try involvements, try contributions and line break assists.

Prop:
Brenton Lawrence is an under rated player. He has a good work ethic and plays big minutes, giving him a chance to make his mark. On the other hand, Junior Paulo is one of the premier bulldozer props in the NRL. This skin just isn’t close.

Shannon Boyd has international ability in him, he proved that last year. This past week he was much better, passing the 100 metres gained mark for only the fourth time this year - but for the second time in consecutive weeks. Martin Taupau on the other hand has been in beast mode. He is in career best form at the moment, and while he has a brain explosion in him, he has been amongst the best in the NRL for 2017.

He might have an Origin jersey for Game I, but Nate Myles is not displaying the sort of form that is supposed to come with that honour. Myles and Clay Priest play very similar minutes and their output is nearly identical too. Myles makes 11 metres more per game, while Priest makes two more tackles. Neither have a particularly good per carry average for a prop, at sub-eight. Neither offload, break the line, or setup anything creative. The only stat that is really that different is tackle busts, Priest taking it five to one. I’m calling this a draw.

Dunimus Lui’s first game for the Raiders was poor; however, his last couple of games have been more than handy. Addin Fonua-Blake is doing what Shannon Boyd did for the Raiders a couple of years ago, and showing very similar talents. He is coming off the bench in the middle period of the game and making a big impact. He is also proving a good starting prop when given the opportunity.

Hooker/utility:
Josh Hodgson in the past fortnight has displayed the sort of form that has him in discussions as the second best hooker in the NRL. He service has been crisp, he has been playing more eyes up football, and his combination with Sezer has been far better. In what is likely to be the shock skin of the week, I'm calling it a draw with Apisai Koroisau. Api has been explosive for the Sea Eagles in the past couple of games, bagging two tries, a pair of line breaks and making 140 metres from 13 carries. He has been dynamic for their attack.

Jackson Hastings and Adam Clysdale are playing minimum minutes and have near identical statistics. I’m calling this one Hastings' way for the simple fact that he has a try in his last two outings, which is the most significant thing either have done in 2017.

Backrow:
Frank Winterstein is playing opposite Josh Papalii, need I say more?

Cutis Sironen is playing better footy that I expected in 2017, by which I mean he isn’t totally stinking up the place. However, Elliot Whitehead shows his class every week. Last week, it was calmness under the pressure of a Leilua speculative offload, to avoid a knock on... then to streak down field, draw the fullback and put Rapana over for a try. This isn’t very close either.

You won’t see too many better hits than the one Sia Soliola put on Luke Keary last week; the diminutive half felt the full brunt of his shoulder. Like many of his team mates, he too has stepped up his game in the past fortnight. Jake Trbojevic is quickly becoming one of the best locks in the game, however. His game combines two of the best backrowers to play for the Manly club. He has all the work rate and toughness of an Anthony Watmough, but has the hands of a Glenn Stewart. It’s all the more spooky when you consider both Jake and Glenn have younger brothers who are exceptional fullbacks.

Lewis Brown was once good footballer, whose versatility was a great asset to his side - and earnt him a place in the New Zealand national side. These days he is a steady bit player, who comes on for the starting backrower who isn’t pulling his weight in that particular game. Joseph Tapine was Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde last week. In a minute of madness last week, he put a shoulder charge on Jake Friend, flattened another Rooster and stripped a ball out. Two resulted in penalties, and the third went in the Raiders favour. However, he still shows the ability to beat the first tackler, even from a standing start, and regularly poke his nose through the line. He is a deceptively strong player with fantastic footwork.

Result
The tally is Sea Eagles seven, Raiders eight and two draws. This is as close as the skins suggest, as close as the last match suggests, and as close as the NRL ladder suggests.

Result: Raiders to make it three close ones in a row (by 4-6).



Plus follow The Greenhouse on Facebook: The Greenhouse Forum and Twitter: @TheGHRaiders

[Archer]

Matt’s Match-ups Rd 13: Raiders V Sea Eagles

Dylan Walker 3. Jarrod Croker ©
Apisai Koroisau 9. Josh Hodgson

I reckon the hodgo bait is big enough to get some this week

[Matt]

Matt’s Match-ups Rd 13: Raiders V Sea Eagles

Dylan Walker 3. Jarrod Croker ©
Apisai Koroisau 9. Josh Hodgson

I reckon the hodgo bait is big enough to get some this week

Walker got us last time, unfortunately he deserves the credit.
Api has also been super impressive in his last 2 outings. He began the thrashing of Souths and he master minded the Broncos blitz til the refs stepped in.

[Matt]

I wonder how the 1995 QLD stats stacked up against NSW that year.
No-one will ever convince me that these "Player x beats player Y in the rep arena because of so and so club games/stats" arguments hold any water whatsoever.

Very tough Q to ask how X player would go at Y club instead of player Z. I just tried to find like for like poor clubs and see the players influence. Both are marquee players, playing FB, in 2 poor teams. That's about where it starts and finishes. Hence the below.

I'd have Tedesco over Boyd any day. Far more of a running threat it's not even close. Granted Boyd is the better ball distributor but I know who I'd rather in my side. How would Darius go at the tigers?

Probably the same as any top level fullback. Moments of skill. Tries hard. Barely any support. Gets the coach fired. Leaves.

If you look at Boyd's 3 yrs in an ordinary Knights side I think you get a good idea. 17 tries in 62 games - not that Boyd has ever been a try scoring machine. Boyd has a Knights win rate of 23%. He still played Origin too, but it helped that QLD were in the middle of their undefeated run.

Tedesco at a very ordinary Tigers has 46 in 80 games over 5 yrs (though he only played 1 game in 2012, so really its 4 yrs). Teddy has a 35% win record. Id back Teddy to have more meters, more line breaks and more tackle busts too. Try assists and line break assists would be an interesting one to know.

[Botman]

Pigman is right, and you **** know it!

Alright, another season, same old story! You know the drill. I’m going to tell you which players win the skins based on actual footballing ability, no some stupid **** 1 week form guide. This is quite simply the best team you can muster combining the two teams. If as you read this you thought i got a few things wrong, that’s ok, you thought wrong. Please refer to the title.

Round 13: Raiders V Eagles

1. Jack Wighton: Matthew Wright is pretty ordinary. Easy decision
2. Nick Cotric: I don’t really think much of Jorgey boy, I suppose there was a time where he was considered a top class player, but right I’d laugh if someone offered me a Cotric for Taufau trade.
3. Jarrod Croker: Sometimes you forget how young Walker is. He’s 22 years old. He’s got 10 years left in the game. He’s play for NSW and Australia, which counts for something. But I don’t believe for one second he’s a better footballer than Croker, kicking a wonky GP goal off the uprights in round 8 doesn’t change that.
4. Joseph Leilua: I like the look of this Kelly kid. Seems like a good young talent. He’s not in BJ’s class.
5. Jordan Rapana: Best winger in the game.
6. Blake Austin: This was a tough one, there is no doubt that Blake Green has out-performed Austin in 2017 and Austin doesn’t have the runs on the board to get an automatic BOTD. But at their best there is no question who the better player is. Right now if they retired Austin would be remembered as the better footballer.
7. Daly Cherry-Evans: Lead his team to a premiership, Clive Churchill Medalist in a losing side, has played for Australia and QLD. Hasn’t been the same player since signing the big contract but he’s still a world class footballer
8. Junior Paulo: Brenton Lawrence would be ideal as a bench #4 middle third. He’s not a starter.
9. Josh Hodgson: Only loses to Cam Smith.
10. Martin Taupau: I hate having to do this because I think Taupau is one of the most over-rated players in the game, but Boyd is well off his best and has really only got 1 year of production under his belt.
11. Josh Papalii: Best edge forward in the game, only Boyd Cordner in his class.
12. Elliott Whitehead: I was thinking about this the other day, where would Whitehead rank? Paps, Cordner, Gillett, Lewis, Wade Graham and maybe Hess ahead of him? I think you could make a case for him above Graham and Hess. 5th-7th best back rower in the game. He really doesn’t get the attention he deserves in this league.
13. Jake Trbojevic: I cannot speak highly enough about this guy. I think he’s the next Paul Gallen, except he’s actually likable. He’s the modern day middle forward. Can churn out metres, tackles his **** off, can break the line, has an offload and is just always in the right place. He’s a star.


14. Api Koroisau: I think this is a perfect role for Koroisau, though he’s developed in a pretty handy fulltime hooker, I think he’s at his best in limited minutes
15. Shannon Boyd: He’s been down on form but he’s still worthy of the first bench middle position in this game
16. Joseph Tapine: Think he’s a young stud. Love his late footwork at the line, really allows him to poke his nose through, would love to see him start to develop his offload
17. Sia Soliolia: This comes down to Sironen, Winterstein or Sia as an edge player, but given both my edges play 80, I value my bench edge being able to play middle if those guys don’t need to come off. Sia gets the nod

[julian87]

Pigman is right, and you **** know it!

Alright, another season, same old story! You know the drill. I’m going to tell you which players win the skins based on actual footballing ability, no some stupid **** 1 week form guide. This is quite simply the best team you can muster combining the two teams. If as you read this you thought i got a few things wrong, that’s ok, you thought wrong. Please refer to the title.

Round 13: Raiders V Eagles

1. Jack Wighton: Matthew Wright is pretty ordinary. Easy decision
2. Nick Cotric: I don’t really think much of Jorgey boy, I suppose there was a time where he was considered a top class player, but right I’d laugh if someone offered me a Cotric for Taufau trade.
3. Jarrod Croker: Sometimes you forget how young Walker is. He’s 22 years old. He’s got 10 years left in the game. He’s play for NSW and Australia, which counts for something. But I don’t believe for one second he’s a better footballer than Croker, kicking a wonky GP goal off the uprights in round 8 doesn’t change that.
4. Joseph Leilua: I like the look of this Kelly kid. Seems like a good young talent. He’s not in BJ’s class.
5. Jordan Rapana: Best winger in the game.
6. Blake Austin: This was a tough one, there is no doubt that Blake Green has out-performed Austin in 2017 and Austin doesn’t have the runs on the board to get an automatic BOTD. But at their best there is no question who the better player is. Right now if they retired Austin would be remembered as the better footballer.
7. Daly Cherry-Evans: Lead his team to a premiership, Clive Churchill Medalist in a losing side, has played for Australia and QLD. Hasn’t been the same player since signing the big contract but he’s still a world class footballer
8. Junior Paulo: Brenton Lawrence would be ideal as a bench #4 middle third. He’s not a starter.
9. Josh Hodgson: Only loses to Cam Smith.
10. Martin Taupau: I hate having to do this because I think Taupau is one of the most over-rated players in the game, but Boyd is well off his best and has really only got 1 year of production under his belt.
11. Josh Papalii: Best edge forward in the game, only Boyd Cordner in his class.
12. Elliott Whitehead: I was thinking about this the other day, where would Whitehead rank? Paps, Cordner, Gillett, Lewis, Wade Graham and maybe Hess ahead of him? I think you could make a case for him above Graham and Hess. 5th-7th best back rower in the game. He really doesn’t get the attention he deserves in this league.
13. Jake Trbojevic: I cannot speak highly enough about this guy. I think he’s the next Paul Gallen, except he’s actually likable. He’s the modern day middle forward. Can churn out metres, tackles his **** off, can break the line, has an offload and is just always in the right place. He’s a star.


14. Api Koroisau: I think this is a perfect role for Koroisau, though he’s developed in a pretty handy fulltime hooker, I think he’s at his best in limited minutes
15. Shannon Boyd: He’s been down on form but he’s still worthy of the first bench middle position in this game
16. Joseph Tapine: Think he’s a young stud. Love his late footwork at the line, really allows him to poke his nose through, would love to see him start to develop his offload
17. Sia Soliolia: This comes down to Sironen, Winterstein or Sia as an edge player, but given both my edges play 80, I value my bench edge being able to play middle if those guys don’t need to come off. Sia gets the nod

I agree with this 1-17.

[Matt]

Pigman is right, and you **** know it!

Alright, another season, same old story! You know the drill. I’m going to tell you which players win the skins based on actual footballing ability, no some stupid **** 1 week form guide. This is quite simply the best team you can muster combining the two teams. If as you read this you thought i got a few things wrong, that’s ok, you thought wrong. Please refer to the title.

Round 13: Raiders V Eagles

1. Jack Wighton: Matthew Wright is pretty ordinary. Easy decision
2. Nick Cotric: I don’t really think much of Jorgey boy, I suppose there was a time where he was considered a top class player, but right I’d laugh if someone offered me a Cotric for Taufau trade.
3. Jarrod Croker: Sometimes you forget how young Walker is. He’s 22 years old. He’s got 10 years left in the game. He’s play for NSW and Australia, which counts for something. But I don’t believe for one second he’s a better footballer than Croker, kicking a wonky GP goal off the uprights in round 8 doesn’t change that.
4. Joseph Leilua: I like the look of this Kelly kid. Seems like a good young talent. He’s not in BJ’s class.
5. Jordan Rapana: Best winger in the game.
6. Blake Austin: This was a tough one, there is no doubt that Blake Green has out-performed Austin in 2017 and Austin doesn’t have the runs on the board to get an automatic BOTD. But at their best there is no question who the better player is. Right now if they retired Austin would be remembered as the better footballer.
7. Daly Cherry-Evans: Lead his team to a premiership, Clive Churchill Medalist in a losing side, has played for Australia and QLD. Hasn’t been the same player since signing the big contract but he’s still a world class footballer
8. Junior Paulo: Brenton Lawrence would be ideal as a bench #4 middle third. He’s not a starter.
9. Josh Hodgson: Only loses to Cam Smith.
10. Martin Taupau: I hate having to do this because I think Taupau is one of the most over-rated players in the game, but Boyd is well off his best and has really only got 1 year of production under his belt.
11. Josh Papalii: Best edge forward in the game, only Boyd Cordner in his class.
12. Elliott Whitehead: I was thinking about this the other day, where would Whitehead rank? Paps, Cordner, Gillett, Lewis, Wade Graham and maybe Hess ahead of him? I think you could make a case for him above Graham and Hess. 5th-7th best back rower in the game. He really doesn’t get the attention he deserves in this league.
13. Jake Trbojevic: I cannot speak highly enough about this guy. I think he’s the next Paul Gallen, except he’s actually likable. He’s the modern day middle forward. Can churn out metres, tackles his **** off, can break the line, has an offload and is just always in the right place. He’s a star.


14. Api Koroisau: I think this is a perfect role for Koroisau, though he’s developed in a pretty handy fulltime hooker, I think he’s at his best in limited minutes
15. Shannon Boyd: He’s been down on form but he’s still worthy of the first bench middle position in this game
16. Joseph Tapine: Think he’s a young stud. Love his late footwork at the line, really allows him to poke his nose through, would love to see him start to develop his offload
17. Sia Soliolia: This comes down to Sironen, Winterstein or Sia as an edge player, but given both my edges play 80, I value my bench edge being able to play middle if those guys don’t need to come off. Sia gets the nod

I agree with this 1-17.

Me 2. Interestingly, Piggy didn't bag me for Walker or Green. In fact, he agreed on Green, and went the other way.

[-TW-]

That's a ripping team 1-17

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

[Botman]

It's pretty good isn't it?
Jakey T might be the heir to my Luke Lewis throne
I **** love that bloke as a footballer

[DJ89]

Walker is only 22?

He's achieved everything there is to acheive and he's that young.

[Botman]

Walker is only 22?

He's achieved everything there is to acheive and he's that young.

Crazy, isn't it?
I think he's under delivered given his talent
When he burst on the scene as an 18 year old I had him penned in as the next GI

[Hazza]

I'd have Tedesco over Boyd any day. Far more of a running threat it's not even close. Granted Boyd is the better ball distributor but I know who I'd rather in my side. How would Darius go at the tigers?

The Tigers aren't playing on Wednesday night though are they?

No he's playing for NSW. And he's been absolutely brilliant. Meanwhile Boyd has done absolutely sfa.

[Matt]

Thanks Hazza, beat me to it.
Teddy > Boyd!
You heard it here 1st

[Matt]

9 skins to 6 is looking unfair to the Blues too

[Matt]

Now Teddy with back to back try savers. Woot woot!

[Archer]

What about the other controversial picks?
Edit: Genuine discussion btw, curious to know if people would stick by some of the others or not, such as Milford > Maloney, Guerra > Trbo, Oates = Fergo, Pearce > Cronk etc.

[zim]

Milford < Maloney (not close)
Guerra < Trbo (not close)
Oates = Fergo
Pearce > Cronk (this may have been even more lopsided if he didn't get taken out by that grub, but man what a kick from Cronk to Oates. I swear if that **** was aiming the ball towards Andrew Gees second set of books it would still land right on them).

But where it was really lost was in the forwards.

[CJR]

Pearce was fine. A couple of bad kicks but overall fine. Cronk one single good kick but overall average. Neither halfback was spectacular. QLD completely dominated by NSW in all aspects

Sent from my SM-G925I using The Greenhouse mobile app powered by Tapatalk

[RedRaider]

Well Matt, once you reversed the original halves skins I think you got most of the rest right. Before the match I wouldn't have had 2nd gamer Tedesco in front of Australian fullback Boyd, but Teddy clearly won that one on the night. Congrats Matt.

[edwahu]

Pigman is right, and you **** know it!

Alright, another season, same old story! You know the drill. I’m going to tell you which players win the skins based on actual footballing ability, no some stupid **** 1 week form guide. This is quite simply the best team you can muster combining the two teams. If as you read this you thought i got a few things wrong, that’s ok, you thought wrong. Please refer to the title.

Round 13: Raiders V Eagles

1. Jack Wighton: Matthew Wright is pretty ordinary. Easy decision
2. Nick Cotric: I don’t really think much of Jorgey boy, I suppose there was a time where he was considered a top class player, but right I’d laugh if someone offered me a Cotric for Taufau trade.
3. Jarrod Croker: Sometimes you forget how young Walker is. He’s 22 years old. He’s got 10 years left in the game. He’s play for NSW and Australia, which counts for something. But I don’t believe for one second he’s a better footballer than Croker, kicking a wonky GP goal off the uprights in round 8 doesn’t change that.
4. Joseph Leilua: I like the look of this Kelly kid. Seems like a good young talent. He’s not in BJ’s class.
5. Jordan Rapana: Best winger in the game.
6. Blake Austin: This was a tough one, there is no doubt that Blake Green has out-performed Austin in 2017 and Austin doesn’t have the runs on the board to get an automatic BOTD. But at their best there is no question who the better player is. Right now if they retired Austin would be remembered as the better footballer.
7. Daly Cherry-Evans: Lead his team to a premiership, Clive Churchill Medalist in a losing side, has played for Australia and QLD. Hasn’t been the same player since signing the big contract but he’s still a world class footballer
8. Junior Paulo: Brenton Lawrence would be ideal as a bench #4 middle third. He’s not a starter.
9. Josh Hodgson: Only loses to Cam Smith.
10. Martin Taupau: I hate having to do this because I think Taupau is one of the most over-rated players in the game, but Boyd is well off his best and has really only got 1 year of production under his belt.
11. Josh Papalii: Best edge forward in the game, only Boyd Cordner in his class.
12. Elliott Whitehead: I was thinking about this the other day, where would Whitehead rank? Paps, Cordner, Gillett, Lewis, Wade Graham and maybe Hess ahead of him? I think you could make a case for him above Graham and Hess. 5th-7th best back rower in the game. He really doesn’t get the attention he deserves in this league.
13. Jake Trbojevic: I cannot speak highly enough about this guy. I think he’s the next Paul Gallen, except he’s actually likable. He’s the modern day middle forward. Can churn out metres, tackles his **** off, can break the line, has an offload and is just always in the right place. He’s a star.


14. Api Koroisau: I think this is a perfect role for Koroisau, though he’s developed in a pretty handy fulltime hooker, I think he’s at his best in limited minutes
15. Shannon Boyd: He’s been down on form but he’s still worthy of the first bench middle position in this game
16. Joseph Tapine: Think he’s a young stud. Love his late footwork at the line, really allows him to poke his nose through, would love to see him start to develop his offload
17. Sia Soliolia: This comes down to Sironen, Winterstein or Sia as an edge player, but given both my edges play 80, I value my bench edge being able to play middle if those guys don’t need to come off. Sia gets the nod

I agree with this 1-17.

Me 2. Interestingly, Piggy didn't bag me for Walker or Green. In fact, he agreed on Green, and went the other way.

I agree except I can't pick BJ and Austin at the moment. They are liabilities while the Green and Kelly are playing solid footy.

[Matt]

Well Matt, once you reversed the original halves skins I think you got most of the rest right. Before the match I wouldn't have had 2nd gamer Tedesco in front of Australian fullback Boyd, but Teddy clearly won that one on the night. Congrats Matt.

I've been saying Teddy is the best FB in the comp for a couple of years now, so I'm not surprised, but thanks.

[Matt]

Milford < Maloney (not close)
Guerra < Trbo (not close)
Oates = Fergo
Pearce > Cronk (this may have been even more lopsided if he didn't get taken out by that grub, but man what a kick from Cronk to Oates. I swear if that **** was aiming the ball towards Andrew Gees second set of books it would still land right on them).

But where it was really lost was in the forwards.

Maloney certainly gets the chocolates but...

Aidan Guerra over Jake Trbojevic.... Anthony Milford somehow wins his skin even though he's a debutant and hasn't played for Australia. Matty playing a dangerous game here.
Should stir up some controversy

Gotta pick Milf. He has a rule after all.... come'on reverse psychology

Finally the Milf rule worked for me

Jurbo outplayed Guerra, BUT, I think Guerra was better than I expected. He did provide something off the bench for them late - though how much of that was tired bodies? Not sure? Debutant rule though. Like Piggy, I rate Jurbo, and I think he is better than his little brother.

Id put Oates ahead of Fergie on the night. Fergie had a couple of errors. While Oates actually caught everything that came his way and did bag a try. So, I got the draw wrong.

I reckon Pearce was good, bar his crappy kicking. The 'grubber' that Gagai took on the full was the worst. But if you are going to bomb to Oates, it has to be a floater or a spiral bomb. Drop punts are easy to take. The only other theory was that he cant take the next hit-up, but to be fair, Gagai did the same job. The difference would have been bigger had Pearce played the last 25-30mins. That said, Cronk was hampered by a pack that was getting totally dominated. He was never going to rectify that individually. The chance he did get, Oates scored from a pin point kick.

[RedRaider]

Well Matt, once you reversed the original halves skins I think you got most of the rest right. Before the match I wouldn't have had 2nd gamer Tedesco in front of Australian fullback Boyd, but Teddy clearly won that one on the night. Congrats Matt.

I've been saying Teddy is the best FB in the comp for a couple of years now, so I'm not surprised, but thanks.

I'm looking forward to seeing your match ups for Origin 2. You may well be the good luck charm NSW needs.

[Rickmando]

Will happily stand corrected, but is there actually a "bench convention" for these other teams to "go against" every week?? Or is it more of an assumption??

[Matt]

Will happily stand corrected, but is there actually a "bench convention" for these other teams to "go against" every week?? Or is it more of an assumption??

Its one of those unspoken "rules". Most teams put the utility in #14. However, the odd team doesnt, and esp in Rep sides can go either way.

[Canberra Milk]

The problem with your skins is that you give each position the same weight. So J Thurston could play and he's only worth one skin... Yeah, nah

[Matt]

The problem with your skins is that you give each position the same weight. So J Thurston could play and he's only worth one skin... Yeah, nah

He could have played the other night and they still would have lost by 20 odd.

Slater wouldnt have made a difference either.

[pickles]

The problem with your skins is that you give each position the same weight. So J Thurston could play and he's only worth one skin... Yeah, nah

It would be pretty easy to group the skins into forwards, backs, halves and bench to get a broader picture.

[CJ42]

The problem with your skins is that you give each position the same weight. So J Thurston could play and he's only worth one skin... Yeah, nah

He could have played the other night and they still would have lost by 20 odd.

Slater wouldnt have made a difference either.

You know what? I completely agreed with this sentiment, but did I count 3 or 4 absolute ripper try savers by the blues?? It's weird that the scoreline could have been much closer considering the absolute domination by the blues.


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[Matt]

Matt’s Match-ups Rd 13: Raiders V Panthers



The two teams facing off this week were heavily backed to be title favorites when the bookies opened betting for season 2017. However, to date, both teams have been misfiring, consistency their greatest enemy. The Panthers are at least headed in the right direction - with a massive come from behind victory over the Knights three weeks ago and a thrashing of the Bulldogs last week. The Raiders, on the other hand, won a tight matches against the Eels and Roosters, and then forced Manly to golden point, despite having only 15 fit players.

Let’s get to the game this week, the Battle of Bathurst; remembering that last time they clashed there, it was a wall that protected the Panthers' winning shot.

Panthers V Raiders

Dylan Edwards 1. Jack Wighton
Josh Mansour 2. Nick Cotric
Dean Whare 3. Jarrod Croker ©
Waqa Blake 4. Joseph Leilua
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 5. Jordan Rapana
Matt Moylan © 6. Blake Austin
Nathan Cleary 7. Aidan Sezer
James Tamou 8. Junior Paulo
Mitch Rein 9. Josh Hodgson
Regan Campbell-Gillard 10. Sia Soliola
Corey Harawira-Naera 11. Josh Papalii
Isaah Yeo 12. Elliott Whitehead
Trent Merrin 13. Luke Bateman

Interchange
Tyrone Peachey 14. Adam Clysdale
Leilani Latu 15. Royce Hunt
Tim Browne 16. Clay Priest
Viliame Kikau 17. Joseph Tapine

Extended Bench
Sitaleki Akauolo 18. Scott Sorenson
Sione Katoa 19. Brent Naden
Moses Leota 20. Dave Taylor
Peta Hiku 21. Kurt Baptiste

(Bolded players are the winners of the skin. The extended bench is excluded.)

Match-ups:

Fullbacks:
Dylan Edwards looks like he has a decent career ahead of him. However, this is only game four for him in 2017, after playing two games earlier in the year. He only returned to firsts last weekend. Jack Wighton was quieter than usual last week, but he has been very good in 2017.

Wingers:
Josh Mansour is a great player, but this is only game two of the season after his return from an ACL injury suffered at the Four Nations. Nick Cotric has been one of the Raiders' most consistent players this year, win or lose - so he takes the skin.

In the other wing contest, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is a very good player, but his countryman, Jordan Rapana is the best winger in the NRL. He is also the NRL’s leading try scorer. There's no doubt who wins the skin here.

Centres:
In 2016, Jarrod Croker and Joseph Leilua were the best and most feared centre combination in the NRL. They are misfiring on occasion in 2017, but they are still playing better football than their opponents. They are better than their opposite in nearly every way, Leilua’s missed tackles the only statistic to buck that trend.

Dean Whare represented his country again this year after another injury riddled 2016 season, but I’m not convinced that he is back to that level of play. Waqa Blake has a good career ahead of him, and could well be a Leilua type player in a couple of years.

Halves:
The halves is one of the toughest calls in this game, and it says a great deal about how both teams are going, but I've gone with the men in green. Some are saying Nathan Cleary is suffering from second year syndrome, but I think he is suffering from a lack of stability, and forward dominance. His captain, Matt Moylan, is his third halves partner in 2017, and we are only 13 rounds in. The Panthers' pack hasn’t been consistent enough in 2017, and therefore the platform for the halves has been missing at times. Interestingly, when you match Cleary up against Aidan Sezer, I expected it to be closer. Sezer has more try assists (11-7) and more try involvements (16-14). Defensively, Sezer misses more tackles (36-19) and Cleary has a better tackle efficiency percentage (85-76). However, the tackles Cleary misses are more costly, with six try causes, and seven line break causes to Sezer’s five and four.

Moylan’s move to five-eighth seems logical. He has the skill set, and with the similarity between fullback and five-eighth in the modern game, it shouldn’t be a great change offensively. However, as Darren Lockyer found out, defending in the front line takes a lot of petrol out of the tank. As this is only Moylan's second game in the halves this year, it is difficult to compare him to Blake Austin is difficult. Plus, they have vastly different footballing talents. Moylan is a ball player, while Austin is a ball runner. I wasn’t surprised to see that Austin was a better defender, with fewer missed tackles, fewer try causes, fewer line break causes and a better tackle efficiency percentage. While Moylan has more try assists, Austin has more try contributions and try involvements.

Prop:
James Tamou is a good player, who is playing some pretty good football. However, how many 125kg giants have you seen play 72 minutes of football and still be effective right up to the last of them? Well… nearly all of them? Junior Paulo is playing some unbelievable football at the moment, and must be on the cusp of an Origin call up.

Sia Soliola is the man to put his hand up in the absence of Shannon Boyd, who has a knee injury. It’s unsurprising that he concedes the metre eating status to his opponent. But it is equally unsurprising that Soliola is the better defender. In the same way that fullback is becoming more like five-eighth, lock is becoming more like a third prop. However, there is still a difference. At the end of the day a prop’s primary role is to move his side down field with ball in hand, and that’s why Regan Campbell-Gillard gets a tight win here.

Leilani Latu wins his skin because of the debutant rule. Royce Hunt - named to make his Raiders' debut - is a product of the Canterbury Bulldogs junior system and will replace Dunamis Lui (ruptured ACL).

Tim Browne and Clay Priest have very similar statistics. The Panther holds the advantage carrying the ball, including offloads and tackle breaks, while the Raider is better defensively. I’ve gone with Browne because of his offensive advantage.

In limited minutes Viliame Kikau is providing some fantastic impact off the bench for the Panthers. He is playing nearly half the minutes of Joseph Tapine, but isn’t that far behind on statistical averages. Kikau really packs a punch off the bench, and that is even more evident defensively, with a few hits already on the highlight reel. That said, Tapine has been in very good form of late. He is providing good go forward and is playing with more controlled aggression in 2017 - even taking account of his minute of madness against the Roosters.

Hooker/utility:
This is only game two of season 2017 for Mitch Rein. While he bagged a double in the rout against the Bulldogs, he doesn’t compare to Josh Hodgson this season.

Adam Clysdale brought about the injury rule, so it’s great to see Kurt Baptiste on the extended bench. Tyrone Peachey is now a victim of his versatility. He began the year in the centres, and was fantastic, continuing where he left off last year. However, his skill set means he finds himself on the bench so as to cover whatever situation arises.

Backrow:
Corey Harawira-Naera will be on the shortlist for 2017 Rookie of the Year, but he is playing opposite Josh Papalii; no need to elaborate.

Isaah Yeo and Elliot Whitehead play very similar roles for their respective sides. They are the rock of their forward packs. They are asked to protect their half defensively, and make tough carries when required. They are also charged with providing opportunity for their outside backs. I’m not a Yeo fan, and it was surprising to me that the statistics are convincingly in his favour. Whitehead only outpoints Yeo for tries scored and total kicks.

Luke Bateman’s last outing for the Raiders was probably his best of the season. However, he has missed a game either side of that performance against the Roosters. The game prior was due to concussion protocols; last week was due to a thumb injury suffered against the Roosters. Trent Merrin, on the other hand, played in the Anzac Test - and while he lost his place in the Origin side, he has been back to his best for his club team.

Result
The tally is Panthers 6 and Raiders 11. With players changing positions, players returning from injury, and other players out injured, the skins suggest a very different outcome to the one I expect. These are two teams that can score points when they want to - but both teams have not been playing consistently as expected. Both sit just outside the top eight on 12 competition points. Neither side can afford to lose if they want to keep place for the finals.

Result: Against the skins, Panthers, at 'home', by a better bench (by 6-12).



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[Notaroboticfish]

Austin over Moylan is a horrible choice. Particularly with the form rule


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[Finchy]

Austin over Moylan is a horrible choice. Particularly with the form rule


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Agreed. No way in hell should Austin and Sezer be winning the skin over Moylan and Cleary. Especially considering the last few Panthers games. Their finding 2016 form fast. We lost to the Bulldogs 16-10. They beat them 38-0. Says a lot about our form.