Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Canberra Stadium
Sunday 16 August 2015, 2:00pm AEST
Tickets: Click here
TV coverage: Fox Sports 1
Radio: ABC, 2CC
Follow us on Facebook: The Greenhouse Forum and Twitter: @TheGHRaiders
The Raiders' finals chances are now in "mathematical" territory after suffering yet another narrow loss at home in Round 22 - this time at the hands of the Wests Tigers. The Raiders did enough to win the match, making big metres (1809m to the Wests Tigers' 1570m) and producing some dominating defence which trapped the Wests Tigers at their own end of the park. Canberra missed less tackles than Wests Tigers (29 versus 38). But the Raiders did not make the most of their scoring opportunities, made errors at critical times, and missed crucial tackles on the edges. Coach Ricky Stuart said they shot themselves in the foot. Stuart has been saying Canberra would learn from the tough, close losses. They haven't yet.
2015 Round 22 Canberra Raiders V Wests Tigers
The Raiders again play at Canberra Stadium in Round 23, against an in-form Manly Sea Eagles. The Raiders are missing Joey Leilua, suspended for a week for a shoulder charge. David Shillington was also charged with contrary conduct, after being sent off for a bit of a head tap. You'd surely struggle to describe it as a head butt. But with the early plea, Shillington has avoided time on the sideline. Edrick Lee returns from suspension on the wing, with Sisa Waqa moving back into the centres in the place of Leilua. Mitch Barnett has been named to start in his second NRL game, after he was a late inclusion in the starting team in his debut match.
Manly are missing Willie Mason, also suspended for two weeks for a shoulder charge. Josh Starling starts at prop for the Sea Eagles, with Ligi Sao returning on the bench. Former Raiders Michael Chee Kam and Brenton Lawrence have been named on the Manly bench. Lawrence is 18th man.
Breaking news: Sisa Waqa reportedly is seeking a release from his contract with the Raiders, to join a French rugby union club in 2016... but the Canberra Raiders won't be agreeing. We're also hearing that Mark Nicholls won't be staying with the Raiders in 2016. His current contract is up, and he's set to join the Melbourne Storm. In addition, a range of players who come off contract at the end of 2015, including Kyle O'Donnell, Jack Ahearn, Jeff Lynch, Mitch Cronin and Mitch Cornish, are set to leave the club in 2016.
Late changes: No late changes likely for Canberra at this stage.
Matt's Match-ups: Click here
History: The Raiders have a poor record against the Sea Eagles, having won just 18 of 48 matches between the clubs, drawing one. In addition, the Raiders only won two of six matches against the Northern Eagles, when the Sea Eagles were in a joint venture with the North Sydney Bears. Canberra has also won just two of the last 10 fixtures against the Sea Eagles. That included the Easter clash in Albury in Round 5 this year, which the Raiders won 29-16.
2015 Round 5 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
2014 Round 8 Canberra Raiders V Manly Sea Eagles
Only three of those last ten matches have been played at Canberra Stadium. So it is not surprising the Raiders have not beaten the Sea Eagles at home since 2004. Nevertheless the Raiders are on a four game losing streak to Manly in Canberra. Canberra has won five of the 12 games at the venue between the clubs. Of the seven games at Seiffert Oval, Canberra only won one, and drew one.
Form: The Raiders are on a WLWLL form line in their last five appearances. The Manly Sea Eagles have a WLWWW recent form line. The Sea Eagles' loss in the past five was to the Cowboys, and they have won against the Warriors, Broncos and Rabbitohs in their last three appearances.
Betting: The Raiders are $2.60 outsiders in the match; Manly are $1.50 favourites. Canberra has a 5.5 points start in the match.
Our tip: The Raiders are now 11th on the ladder (8-12, +6), the Sea Eagles in ninth (9-11, +2). It had looked like all of Canberra's games in the final rounds would be against teams below them on the ladder. Not now.
Playing at home is no advantage for Canberra either. The Raiders have won just six of the past 26 matches at Canberra Stadium. Their home record in 2015 is 2-8, the worst in the NRL. The lowest tally for home wins in Canberra Raiders history is four. No wonder the crowds are sub-10,000.
Remarkably, Canberra is still the best attacking team in the NRL. Incredible, given the team looks like missing the finals. Manly is middle of the pack in terms of points scored. The Raiders have scored 80 tries this season, but Manly is not far behind on 72. Manly has some lethal attacking players.
The Raiders are climbing the ranks in terms of running metres, but are still 10th in the NRL (Sea Eagles 14th). Both Manly and Canberra are bottom three for kick return metres. The Sea Eagles, however, top the NRL in terms of kicking metres (Raiders third).
Where does it all go wrong for the Raiders? Defence and composure.
Canberra is in the bottom three defensive teams. Manly middle of the pack. The Raiders are top five for missed tackles, the Sea Eagles top six.
Canberra has lost two games by one point, two games by two points and another by four points. Eight extra competition points puts the Raiders in the top four. Frustrating.
Putting everything together, it's hard to see Canberra beating Manly. Manly have a genuine shot at making the finals, they have momentum, and they have class in key positions. The internal strife that has disrupted Manly is over; the pressure is off the coach, now the future is decided; and the players are playing for their futures with a new coach. Sadly, our tip is Manly by 12.
No doubt the Raiders will now come out and blow the Sea Eagles off the park!
What they're saying:
Ricky Stuart: "They're a brand new team, when we get into tough periods of the game we're not good enough to close it out. We're too impatient, we want to score off every set of six instead of playing percentage football. When you lose those types of games through a lack of discipline and being impatient, that's the frustrating thing. I can handle getting beaten, that's not the drama, I just feel sorry for them sitting in there when they shoot themselves in the foot like that. We've had that many times this year when we should have learnt from those experiences and we haven't."
Blake Austin: I've got to be a lot better and I was well below par on the weekend. To turn out a performance like that was really disappointing. "It's about sticking to the simple things. There were moments we did those simple things; other times we over-played our hand. It's got to come from me and Sammy, we've got to drive that. We're taking full responsibility for that and we will try to be better next week."
Josh Hodgson: "I came over here looking to settle and find a home, and I think I've found that in Canberra. I'm not the type of person that likes moving around a lot, I like to find where I'm happy and stay there because that's where I play my best footy. I'd like to stay here, but I'll worry about that in the off-season."
Mitch Barnett on his debut: found it a bit tough early on, the speed of the game was really fast but the boys talked me through it. I just wanted to do my job for the team and that was taking those tough carries and running those lines."
Canberra Raiders
1. Jack Wighton 2. Edrick Lee 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Sisa Waqa 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Blake Austin 7. Sam Williams 8. Frank Paul Nuuausala 9. Josh Hodgson 10. David Shillington 11. Josh Papalii 12. Mitchell Barnett 13. Shaun Fensom
14. Kurt Baptiste 15. Jarrad Kennedy 16. Paul Vaughan 17. Shannon Boyd
Coach: Ricky Stuart
Manly Sea Eagles
1. Brett Stewart 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Jamie Lyon 4. Steve Matai 5. Peta Hiku 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Jake Trbojevic 9. Matt Ballin 10. Josh Starling 11. Feleti Mateo 12. Justin Horo 13. Blake Leary
14. Jesse Sene-Lefao 15. Michael Chee-Kam 16. James Hasson 17. Ligi Sao 18. Brenton Lawrence
Coach: Geoff Toovey
Officials:
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Dave Munro; Sideline Officials: Michael Wise, Ricky MacFarlane; Video Referees: Shayne Hayne, Luke Phillips;
Match Hashtags: #NRL #WeareRaiders #BleedGreen #NRLRaidersManly
The Greenhouse Hashtags: #COYR2015 #WearGreen2015 #GreenNation #GreenMachine #FromAllAngles
